After The Close, 12 March 2008
Another up day but nothing to celebrate. The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed higher by 0.027 points or 0.82%. There were 27 winners, 19 losers and 4 unchanged. Of the top five based upon market value, Cameco gained 1.9%, Denison gained 5.9%, First Uranium was unchanged, Paladin gained 4.2% and Uranium One gained 4.9%. The best performer was Energy Fuels with a 24.1% gain while the worst performer was Aurora Energy with a loss of 8.8%.
I thought I’d show the intermediate term P&F chart as I haven’t shown it for some time. The simple thing to understand, my criteria for trend reversal is that the price must break below (or above) its up trend line (or down trend line) AND must break below (or above) two previous lows (or highs) for a trend reversal from bullish to bearish (or bearish to bullish).
From this criteria we had a P&F bear market on the break below $5.00 that lasted until a P&F bull market was confirmed at $4.20. That was followed by another bear market on a break at $4.60 and we are still in that bear.
The primary support (blue) and resistance (red) lines are drawn in solid while secondary lines are drawn dashed.
The bull market break at the $4.10 level projected to $5.20 (using an horizontal count method), which was met. The bear market break at $4.60 projected to $4.00, which was met. The subsequent consolidation and new bear move at $4.00 projected to $2.70. Another subsequent break at $3.70 projects to $1.90. The following action gave us another projection using an alternate (vertical count) method to the $1.90 level as a confirmation.
So, from the intermediate term P&F we have as a next projection the $2.70 level and a far out one to $1.90. With the latest action the $2.70 projection does not look that out of line but the $1.90 projection looks like it may just be too far away to be met (but who knows). Sooner or later the trend reverses and leaves the final projections sitting in the dust. That could be the $1.90 one, but maybe the $2.70 one yet.
Back to normal reality. The intermediate term continues as it has for many weeks. The Index trades below its negative sloping moving average and the momentum indicator continues inside its negative zone, still below its negative sloping trigger line. What else can I say, the intermediate term rating remains BEARISH.
The same story goes for the short term, Index below its negative moving average line and the momentum inside its negative zone still below its negative sloping trigger line. The two, momentum and its trigger line, are closing on each other and may possibly cross within a day but it will still be the slope of the trigger line that will count. The aggressive Stochastic Oscillator (SO) usually moves quite quickly during a change in trend. However, in this case the SO is moving higher and has moved through its oversold line to the up side BUT the move is very lethargic. One gets the impression that if the SO could talk it would be saying “not impressed at all with this latest move”. All in all, the short term rating remains BEARISH.
Another up day but nothing to celebrate. The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed higher by 0.027 points or 0.82%. There were 27 winners, 19 losers and 4 unchanged. Of the top five based upon market value, Cameco gained 1.9%, Denison gained 5.9%, First Uranium was unchanged, Paladin gained 4.2% and Uranium One gained 4.9%. The best performer was Energy Fuels with a 24.1% gain while the worst performer was Aurora Energy with a loss of 8.8%.
I thought I’d show the intermediate term P&F chart as I haven’t shown it for some time. The simple thing to understand, my criteria for trend reversal is that the price must break below (or above) its up trend line (or down trend line) AND must break below (or above) two previous lows (or highs) for a trend reversal from bullish to bearish (or bearish to bullish).
From this criteria we had a P&F bear market on the break below $5.00 that lasted until a P&F bull market was confirmed at $4.20. That was followed by another bear market on a break at $4.60 and we are still in that bear.
The primary support (blue) and resistance (red) lines are drawn in solid while secondary lines are drawn dashed.
The bull market break at the $4.10 level projected to $5.20 (using an horizontal count method), which was met. The bear market break at $4.60 projected to $4.00, which was met. The subsequent consolidation and new bear move at $4.00 projected to $2.70. Another subsequent break at $3.70 projects to $1.90. The following action gave us another projection using an alternate (vertical count) method to the $1.90 level as a confirmation.
So, from the intermediate term P&F we have as a next projection the $2.70 level and a far out one to $1.90. With the latest action the $2.70 projection does not look that out of line but the $1.90 projection looks like it may just be too far away to be met (but who knows). Sooner or later the trend reverses and leaves the final projections sitting in the dust. That could be the $1.90 one, but maybe the $2.70 one yet.
Back to normal reality. The intermediate term continues as it has for many weeks. The Index trades below its negative sloping moving average and the momentum indicator continues inside its negative zone, still below its negative sloping trigger line. What else can I say, the intermediate term rating remains BEARISH.
The same story goes for the short term, Index below its negative moving average line and the momentum inside its negative zone still below its negative sloping trigger line. The two, momentum and its trigger line, are closing on each other and may possibly cross within a day but it will still be the slope of the trigger line that will count. The aggressive Stochastic Oscillator (SO) usually moves quite quickly during a change in trend. However, in this case the SO is moving higher and has moved through its oversold line to the up side BUT the move is very lethargic. One gets the impression that if the SO could talk it would be saying “not impressed at all with this latest move”. All in all, the short term rating remains BEARISH.
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