After The Close, 11 March 2008
Gee, was it something I said? Just as I get too cocky on the down side the market turns around, at least for one day. The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed the day up 0.071 points or 2.24%. There were 32 winners and 11 losers with 7 unchanged. Of the majors only one declined. Cameco gained 4.5%, Denison gained 2.9%, First Uranium was the only loser down 1.3%, Paladin gained 1.8% and even Uranium One gained on the day, a good 7.7%. The best gainer, however, was Triex Minerals with a gain of 10.8% while the worst loser was Aurora Energy with a loss of 10.2%.
Although the day ended on the up side the action was not too volatile and has not changed any of the intermediate term indicators. The Index is still below a negative moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone below its negative sloping trigger line. The intermediate term rating must still remain BEARISH.
Any direction changes should first be noted in the short term indicators. Well, nothing has changed as far as their impact on the final rating is concerned. The momentum indicator remains in its negative zone but has turned and is heading towards its trigger line. The more aggressive Stochastic Oscillator has also turned to the up side but remains below its trigger line and still inside its oversold zone. Another day should see some change here. With the daily Index trading range high and low nestled within the range of yesterday this is often thought of as a bullish reversal indication, especially if the prior activity was in the downward direction. So, although we have some indications that a reversal of trend may be in process the indicators have not yet confirmed any turn around, not even for the short term. The short term rating remains BEARISH.
Gee, was it something I said? Just as I get too cocky on the down side the market turns around, at least for one day. The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed the day up 0.071 points or 2.24%. There were 32 winners and 11 losers with 7 unchanged. Of the majors only one declined. Cameco gained 4.5%, Denison gained 2.9%, First Uranium was the only loser down 1.3%, Paladin gained 1.8% and even Uranium One gained on the day, a good 7.7%. The best gainer, however, was Triex Minerals with a gain of 10.8% while the worst loser was Aurora Energy with a loss of 10.2%.
Although the day ended on the up side the action was not too volatile and has not changed any of the intermediate term indicators. The Index is still below a negative moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone below its negative sloping trigger line. The intermediate term rating must still remain BEARISH.
Any direction changes should first be noted in the short term indicators. Well, nothing has changed as far as their impact on the final rating is concerned. The momentum indicator remains in its negative zone but has turned and is heading towards its trigger line. The more aggressive Stochastic Oscillator has also turned to the up side but remains below its trigger line and still inside its oversold zone. Another day should see some change here. With the daily Index trading range high and low nestled within the range of yesterday this is often thought of as a bullish reversal indication, especially if the prior activity was in the downward direction. So, although we have some indications that a reversal of trend may be in process the indicators have not yet confirmed any turn around, not even for the short term. The short term rating remains BEARISH.
2 comments:
Merv,
I've been trading the mining stocks since 2002, and have to commend you on your work here. I read you daily.
I do a lot of FA work to pick my stocks, and then use TA and news flow to help me to pick exits and entries.
I find that trading companies with great FA will usually allow me to recover from any TA mistakes, if I am patient and the sector remains in favor.
As far as FA goes, my favorite non producer is UEX based on mulitiple very high grade exploration discoveries in the Athabasca Basin. Cameco owns about 20% of the company, and they have approx. a dozen joint ventures with Areva (all in the Basin). They've got about $60M in the till and 15 rigs currently turning.
I've got a few producers, but there is risk there also. Cameco, Uranium One and even Dennison have missed production targets in the past, and Paladin looks a tad expensive for its projected uranium production, and power/possible future political risks in Africa.
The best recent discovery is Hathor's recent hole that hit 11.9m of 5.29% U3O8 (over $8000 per ton rock and close to milling infrastructure) and resulted in a 250% possible gain for those who had defied all TA (I was not so lucky and had to buy higher) and held the stock over the long term. I'm trading it on TA for now, as well as a very small company with a huge chunk of land almost surrounding Hathor and the nearby very high grade deposits owned by Dennison and Areva.
This small company is within several hundred meters of all 3 discoveries. They'll be drilling that area within the next couple of weeks. They have a gamma ray scintillometer, so like Hathor, we are likely to see almost immediate cps counts if they hit high grade U, rather than have to wait 3 months for assays.
Sprott Asset Management owns almost 20% of the shares and they have $30 million in future exploration obligations from partners earning into their various properties. They are the Canadian property spinoff of Strathmore, and have $8M in the till with 40M shares outstanding.
It'll move up a bit off further momentum from any more Hathor hits, but I'm not buying much unless they strike high grade themselves.
Finally, Aurora was down today on the news that the Nunavut govt is considering a 3 year moratorium on uranium mining.
If you'd rather no comments on FA, just remove the post and I'll stick to TA comments in future.
Cheers and thanks for all the TA work.
anonymous,
I remember an analyst (I think from the US North West area) who predicted commedities based upon if his corns were pothering him or not.
I had dinner once with an analyst who had predicted the exact day of the market top in 1987, two months before the top, using astrology.
An investor should use whatever method works for them. I had bad luck in my early days with FA and reverted to the technical side. Besides I'm a lazy type and FA just takes too much time and effort.
The comments section are for whatever one thinks could be of interest to other readers, just as long as it involves uranium. My only suggestion would be to try and keep it simple and not too long.
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