Merv's Daily Commentary 08 Nov 2009

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 06 November 2009

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 06 Nov 2009

Open: 172.93
Hugh: 176.60
Low: 170.31
Close: 173.80
Volume: 5750

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Daily and Weekly Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

Some days up, some days down but overall the Daily Index went nowhere this past week. Yes it was up a little on the week but when you take into consideration the daily range it was basically a sideways week.

Looking at the longer term daily chart (posted earlier) we see that the Daily Index has been in a lateral holding pattern for some time now. The attempt a couple of weeks back to break through the upper resistance failed and we continue inside the “box”. Not only has the price been in a lateral path since late April but so have the long term momentum and the volume indicators. Boy, once it makes its break we (hopefully) will see some real action. A move to the 200 level would give us some interesting upside projections from the P&F chart. We still have an existing 300 projection but it could be increased to as much as the 540 level after the break, with a rest period around the 400 mark. But first we must make that break-out. A $3.00 drop in the price of uranium this past week was no help.

A common criteria in technical analysis is that once a support level is broken it then reverts to a resistance level and once a resistance is broken it becomes a support. This can be vividly seen in the longer term daily chart posted earlier. We had a resistance developed just above the 150 level in Jan and April. Once broken on the up side it became a support ever since. I would expect the same thing to happen once the Index breaks above the existing resistance just below the 200 level.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed down on Friday for a daily loss of 0.98 points or o.56%. There were 15 daily winners, 24 daily losers and 11 totally confused and not knowing which way to go. The five largest stocks were` also quite confused with one up, two down and two going nowhere. Cameco gained 0.6%, First Uranium went nowhere, Paladin lost 1.2%, Uranium One lost 4.0% and Uranium Participation was the other going nowhere stock. The best daily performer was Purepoint with a daily gain of 11.8% while the loser of the day was Terra Ventures with a loss of 16.7%. The Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF lost 1.3% on the day.

For the week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed higher by 128.91 points or 2.46%. There were 32 weekly winners, 14 weekly losers and 4 going nowhere. We still have a long way to go to get to a comfortable market position as the Weekly Table (posted earlier) shows only 28% of the stocks in bullish trends and 54% still in bearish trends, on the intermediate term. The short and long terms are not much better. The five largest stocks were all in the winner’s circle. Cameco gained 3.8% during the week, First Uranium gained 1.9%, Paladin gained 3.1%, Uranium one gained 1.0% and Uranium Participation gained 7.4%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF gained 2.3% on the week.

Looking to see where we stand for the long term, nothing much has changed from where we have been for some time. Both Daily and Weekly Indices are above their long term moving average lines with the lines pointing upward. The long term momentum indicators are in different locations on their charts. The Daily indicator is in its negative zone below its negative sloping trigger line while the Weekly indicator is in its positive zone oscillating above and below its trigger line. The volume indicator remains above its long term positive sloping trigger line. All in all I would continue with a BULLISH rating for the long term.

The intermediate term gave us a scare recently but is once more trying for a positive mood, not exuberant but working towards a positive. The Daily Index remains below its moving average line but the line is oh so slightly sloping upwards. The momentum indicator is in its positive zone and sitting right on top of its negative sloping trigger line. The volume indicator remains above its positive trigger line for now. Too many variables to call it anything other than NEUTRAL at this point.

The short term is not as mixed. The Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line while the momentum remains in its negative zone but above its positive trigger line. The daily volume action is not the action of a bullish trend with the Friday volume still slightly below its 15 day average volume. On the short term the rating remains BEARISH.

As for the immediate direction, the Index remains above its very short term moving average line but is moving lower and could cross the line in another day. The aggressive Stochastic Oscillator is in its positive zone above its positive trigger but with indications that it might be topping out. I will go with the lateral direction as the most likely for the next day or two.

Merv's Indices 08 November 2009

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 08 Nov 2009

Merv's Daily Commentary 05 Nov 2009

After The Close, 05 Nov 2009

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data

Open: 173.87
High: 177.24
Low: 171.15
Close: 174.78
Volume: 3886

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 5 0 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

It’s been a few days since my last post but nothing spectacular has happened. The Daily Index seems to be turning around but without any real enthusiasm. We do have those higher lows and higher highs, the next should be a higher high.

Today was a mild upside Index day but a downside component stock day. The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index gained 1.52 points or 0.88%. There were 17 winners, 30 losers and only 3 confused. The five largest stocks were somewhat mixed. Cameco gained 2.8%, First Uranium lost 8.9%, Paladin gained 1.8%, Uranium One gained 3.2% and Uranium Participation lost 0.3%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF gained 1.1%. The best winner today was Continental Precious Minerals with a gain of 17.2% while the worst performer was Alberta Star with a loss of 10.5%.

The Daily Index closed just above its positive intermediate term moving average line. The momentum indicator closed in its positive zone just above its trigger line although the trigger is still pointing downward. The volume indicator is once more above its trigger line and the trigger is pointing upwards. The intermediate term rating is BULLISH today.

On the short term the Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line. The short term momentum indicator, although moving upwards, is still in its negative zone below its negative sloping trigger line. The daily volume action remains low and is below its 15 day average volume line. All in all, the short term rating remains BEARISH.

As for the immediate direction of least resistance, that looks still to be the lateral direction although the Stochastic Oscillator is roaring upwards and is almost into its overbought zone.

Merv's Weekly Commentary 31 Oct 2009

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 30 October 2009

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 30 Oct 2009

Open: 173.68
Hugh: 175.11
Low: 164.07
Close: 169.17
Volume: 5308

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Daily and Weekly Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

Well, we had at least one up day during the week, but the FORCE is just not with us. However, the past few days do look like a lateral trend is upon us. How long it will last is anyone’s guess but I don’t think for too long. I do go with the comments that we have higher lows. Since the initial low was reached in early July followed by the first rally high, the subsequent lows and highs have been progressively higher and higher. Despite the Index drop this week we are still within that scenario.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed Friday on the down side retracing almost the full advance of the previous day. The Index lost 4.26 points or 2.46%. There were 6 winners, 37 losers and 7 confused. The five largest stocks by market value were all in the losers column. Cameco lost 0.1%, First Uranium lost 2.9%, Paladin lost 8.8%, Uranium One lost 1.0% and Uranium Participation lost 4.4%. The best winner of the day was Uracan with a gain of 13.3% while the loser of the day was Powertech with a loss of 9.9%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF lost 3.6% on the day.

For the week as a whole, the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed lower by 480.81 points or 8.40%. There were only 5 stocks in the weekly winners circle while the losers circle had 44 and one stock just circling around. There was one winner in the top 5 stocks. Cameco lost 5.6%, First Uranium lost 3.9%, Paladin lost 15.5%, Uranium One was the lose winner with a gain of 1.7% and Uranium Participation lost 7.5%. The best of the 5 winners was Uracan with a gain of only 4.6% while the worst of the losers was Ucore Uranium with a loss of 25.0%. Market Vectors Nuclear ETF lost 7.3%.

For the long term we still have a divergence of indicators using the Daily Index versus the Weekly Index. They are, however, very close to confirming each other. Using the Daily Index the Index is below its long term moving average line although the line is still very slightly pointing upwards. The momentum indicator is in its negative zone after a very brief period in the positive. It is also below its negative trigger line. The volume indicator is just very slightly above its positive trigger line. Unfortunately, my summation of the Daily Index indicator gives me a BEARISH rating for the long term.

Using the Weekly Index, the Index remains above its positive sloping long term moving average line and the momentum indicator is still in its positive zone although moving downward and very close to its neutral line. I don’t really have a trigger line for the weekly Indices. The rating here would be BULLISH but weakening fast.

On the intermediate term nothing much is positive. The Daily Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone below its negative trigger line. The volume indicator is below its trigger line and the trigger has turned slightly downward. The only rating here is a BEARISH rating. One encouraging sign is the short term moving average line has not yet crossed below the intermediate term line for confirmation of this rating.

On the short term everything is not coming out roses. The Index is below its negative moving average line, the momentum in in its negative zone below its negative trigger and the daily volume action is below its 15 day average volume (although this may be seen as a positive). The short term rating remains BEARISH.

I’m still waiting for that Stochastic Oscillator to move above its oversold line for a signal that we might be in a rally mode, but it remains below the line. It is, however, above its positive trigger line so maybe on Monday we will get the sign that a rally is in progress (although you wouldn’t know it from Friday’s action). With the Index still below its sharply negative sloping very short term moving average line but with an SO that is ready to break above its oversold line I will go with a continuation of the lateral trend for Monday.

SPORADIC POSTING NEXT WEEK OR TWO

I am traveling this week-end and will be on the move for the next week or two so time will be limited and posting next week and the following week may be somewhat sporadic. I will try and post as often as possible, maybe with limited comments.

Merv's Indices 31 October 2009

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 31 October 2009

Merv's Daily Commentary 29 Oct 2009

After The Close, 29 Oct 2009

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data

Open: 169.36
High: 175.74
Low: 168.66
Close: 173.44
Volume: 5104

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 5 0 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Well, it’s a start. We should see at least a few days of encouraging market, after that it depends upon what these next few days look like. With the full day’s activity in the Index taking place within the upper and lower confines of yesterday’s trading range we might expect another lateral day but the activity does suggest a rally, at the least.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed higher by 4.71 points or 2.79%. There were 37 winners, 2 losers and 11 totally confused. All of the top five stocks by market value were winners on the day. Cameco gained 2.0%, First Uranium gained 6.9%, Paladin gained 1.9%, Uranium One gained 2.7% and Uranium Participation gained 0.7%. The best winner on the day was Uranium Energy with a gain of 12.3% while the biggest loser, of the two losers, was JNR Resources with a loss of 6.7%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF gained 1.9%.

Today’s action took the Index above the long term moving average line upgrading the long term Daily Index rating to a + NEUTRAL rating.

As for the intermediate term, The day’s action was good but was just shy of changing anything. The Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line. The momentum indicator did close just inside its positive zone but remains below its negative trigger line. The volume indicator did close just a hair above its barely positive trigger line but this did not affect the final rating. The intermediate term rating remains BEARISH for at least another day.

On the short term nothing has changed although the action today has started an improvement in the indicators. The Index remains below its negative moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone below its negative trigger line. The daily volume action is still not impressive being lower than yesterday’s downside Index volume action. It may take a few days of positive activity for the speculators to get back in the game and increase this volume activity. For now, the short term remains BEARISH.

The Stochastic Oscillator has turned upwards and has crossed above its trigger line although it is still in its oversold zone. One usually waits for the SO to cross above the oversold line before thinking a rally is on but I’ll jump the gun ago go with a rally in progress now. It might actually be a day or two of lateral action but all the indications are for the trend now to move higher.

Merv's Daily Commentary 28 Oct 2009

After The Close, 28 Oct 2009

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data

Open: 174.40
High: 175.97
Low: 166.76
Close: 168.73
Volume: 7254

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 5 0 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Ouch, that hurts. The Daily Index took another swipe to the down side and the Stochastic Oscillator moved even further down inside its oversold zone. I had started the Daily Index 0n 01 Sept 2006 and this is now the lowest point the SO has been during all this time. Yesterday the SO was at 14.57 which was just above its previous lowest reading of 13.00. Today, it is at 11.42. Of some encouragement is the fact that we now have 6 days in a row if downside action, four of significant value, so we are due for a rebound. The SO itself is leveling off today. Even though the Index action was quite severe the SO shows signs of a start to turning around. I guess we’ll just have to keep watching and hoping.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower by 7.20 points or 4.09%. There were only 6 winners, 42 losers and 2 confused. It was, without a doubt, a lousy day. Of those five largest stocks, Cameco lost 4.3%, First Uranium lost 1.1%, Paladin lost 4.6%, Uranium One gained 1.0% and Uranium Participation lost 3.3%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF lost 3.2%. The best performer on the day was Bayswater Uranium with a whopping 4.4% gain while the worst performer was RPT Uranium with a loss of 11.8%.

Today’s plunge really wrecked the ratings. The long term rating for the Daily Index just took a tumble. The Index closed below the moving average line although the line is still very slightly positive. The momentum indicator is in its negative zone below its negative trigger line. The volume indicator is sitting just a hair above a positive trigger line. The rating for the long term Daily Index is now BEARISH. I wouldn’t know the rating for the Weekly Index before the week-end.

The Index has smashed through the intermediate term moving average line closing well below it. The line has also just turned very slightly negative. The momentum indicator has moved into its negative zone below its negative trigger line. The volume indicator has now moved below its trigger line and the trigger has turned downward. All indicators tell us the intermediate term in now BEARISH.

I guess it goes without saying that all the short term indicators are negative also, and getting more so. I am concerned with today’s volume action. The volume increased almost by 50% from yesterday. One day does not a trend make but this is something to watch. The short term rating remains BEARISH.

Once more I will go with the up side as the immediate direction of least resistance. The SO has started to turn around despite the severity of today’s Index decline. It is also deep inside its oversold zone and a rebound should be expected from these levels. Finger’s crossed.

Merv's Daily Commentary 27 Oct 2009

After The Close, 27 Oct 2009

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data

Open: 180.03
High: 181.43
Low: 172.85
Close: 175.92
Volume: 5005

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 5 0 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

I command thee to halt this foolishness and get on with the job of creating profits for speculators. THAT ought to do it.

Another day and another downer. We are just about where I would expect the Index to halt and take a breather. It could still go a lot lower, to the 160 level by the P&F chart, or more precisely, the 150.01 level. Below there and we are back into a P&F bear market per this chart. A reversal of P&F direction, as opposed to reversal of trend, would require 170.00. We were close today but missed it by almost 3 points.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower by 3.89 points or 2.17%. There were 15 winners, 32 losers and only 3 that didn’t know where they were going. Cameco lost 3.3%, First Uranium lost 3.0%, Paladin lost 3.6%, Uranium One gained 0.3% and Uranium Participation lost 2.0%. The best performer was RTP Uranium with a gain of 13.3% while the worst performer was Titan Uranium with a loss of 13.7%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF lost 1.6%.

The chart and indicators are moving lower in the intermediate term but have not yet reached a point where it affects the intermediate term rating. The Daily Index moved below its moving average line during the day but still closed above the line in the end. The moving average remains sloping in an upward direction. The momentum indicator is pointing almost straight down and is below its negative trigger but still remains slightly in its positive zone. The volume indicator is also moving downward but closed the day just above its positive trigger line. Putting it all together the intermediate term rating remains BULLISH. However, another day or two of this downside action and this rating may start to become downgraded.

I went bearish on the short term yesterday and the indicators have just gotten a little more negative. The Index is below its negative sloping moving average line while the momentum indicator has entered its negative zone below its downward sloping trigger line. The daily volume action remains low, as one would expect with the downside Index action. The short term rating remains BEARISH.

As for the immediate direction of least resistance, the Stochastic Oscillator has entered its oversold zone which suggests that a reversal of direction, or at least a rest period, is close on hand. It may even come tomorrow. This indicator has seen the Index rally each time it has dropped into its oversold zone. I will go with the up side tomorrow. I know, uranium has moved another notch higher today (by $1.75) so one might expect a rise in the stocks but things don’t happen like that all the time. I will go with my reading of the indicators, and especially the Stochastic Oscillator, for the immediate direction.

Merv's Daily Commentary 26 Oct 2009

After The Close, 26 Oct 2009

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data

Open: 183.94
High: 187.78
Low: 177.65
Close: 179.82
Volume: 5733

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 5 0 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Another downer. Looks like that 175, give or take a few points, is just about to be reached. Once there we should expect the down cycle to halt, if not necessarily reverse. We’ll take it a day at a time for now.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower by 3.04 points or 1.66%. There were only 8 winners today, 39 losers and 3 not going anywhere. Cameco gained 0.2%, First Uranium lost 3.6%, Paladin lost 1.3%, Uranium One lost 1.3% and Uranium Participation gained 1.4%. The Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF lost 1.0%. The best performer on the day was Titan Uranium with a gain of 15.9% while the worst performer was Ucore Uranium with a loss of 15.6%.

About the only change in the indicators, other than getting weaker, was the short term moving average line which has now turned downward. Otherwise, all the indicators remain vas they were on the week-end. The down turn in the short term momentum has resulted in the short term rating now going fully BEARISH while the intermediate term rating is still BULLISH.