After The Close, 13 March 2008
We seemed to have bottomed but as yet we’re not really going anywhere despite the positive days of Index action. However, looking on the bright side the Index is so far acting as I had hoped some time back when it was approaching that third FAN trend line. At that time I suggested that the Index just might hug the trend line down a ways, similar to its action at the second FAN trend line, before making an upside break away. Well, so far so good.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed up 0.034 points or 1.03%. It was almost a tie in the winners and losers column with 23 winners and 22 losers. Five stocks decided to go nowhere today. It was also a mixed day for the largest five stocks. Cameco gained 3.1%, Denison gained 2.4%, First Uranium gained 0.9%, Paladin lost 0.2% and Uranium One lost 2.0%. The best Index component gainer was Frontier Pacific with a gain of 10.8% while the worst performer was Xemplar Energy with a loss of 15.8%.
Still nothing has changed from the intermediate term point of view although things are getting closer and closer to a possible upgrade in the Index. The Index is still below its negative moving average line and unless we have a really knock out day tomorrow I don’t see any change this week. As for the momentum indicator, it is still below its negative sloping trigger line but only barely so. Another day of positive action and it should go above the trigger although the trigger may still remain negative. For today the rating remains BEARISH.
As might be expected the short term is much closer to a reversal of trend. For now, however, the Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line but close enough that a good upside day would take it through the line. The momentum indicator is approaching its neutral line but for now is still below the line in the negative zone. The momentum indicator has, however, moved above its trigger line although the trigger has not yet turned to the up side. As for the Stochastic Oscillator, it is rapidly heading towards its neutral line and is above its positive sloping trigger line. Another day and it should breach that neutral line but let’s wait for it. For now, the short term rating remains BEARISH.
Looking over the various charts of the component stocks in the Index one feature jumps out at me. A vast majority of the charts show an intermediate term momentum that is either showing a positive divergence or confirming a positive shift in sentiment in the price action. The feeling (not one of my technical indicators) is that the bottom for uranium stocks may have been seen or is not far from being reached. As I said, this is just a feeling and at this point I wouldn’t risk any money on it so let’s wait to see how this develops.
MOMENTRUM
There are literally dozens of different “momentum” indicators. I have developed my own proprietary momentum indicator that is used in the table calculations. However, as you have noticed, my favorite momentum indicator is the Relative Strength Index (RSI). In my way of looking at things a momentum indicator gives us an indication of the strength of recent price action and from this we can determine if the price action is getting stronger, weaker or just doing nothing, from a particular investment (or speculative) time period point of view. Momentum indicators are usually, but not always, advance warning indicators of poential trend reversals. That's why it's important to watch what they are saying.
We seemed to have bottomed but as yet we’re not really going anywhere despite the positive days of Index action. However, looking on the bright side the Index is so far acting as I had hoped some time back when it was approaching that third FAN trend line. At that time I suggested that the Index just might hug the trend line down a ways, similar to its action at the second FAN trend line, before making an upside break away. Well, so far so good.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed up 0.034 points or 1.03%. It was almost a tie in the winners and losers column with 23 winners and 22 losers. Five stocks decided to go nowhere today. It was also a mixed day for the largest five stocks. Cameco gained 3.1%, Denison gained 2.4%, First Uranium gained 0.9%, Paladin lost 0.2% and Uranium One lost 2.0%. The best Index component gainer was Frontier Pacific with a gain of 10.8% while the worst performer was Xemplar Energy with a loss of 15.8%.
Still nothing has changed from the intermediate term point of view although things are getting closer and closer to a possible upgrade in the Index. The Index is still below its negative moving average line and unless we have a really knock out day tomorrow I don’t see any change this week. As for the momentum indicator, it is still below its negative sloping trigger line but only barely so. Another day of positive action and it should go above the trigger although the trigger may still remain negative. For today the rating remains BEARISH.
As might be expected the short term is much closer to a reversal of trend. For now, however, the Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line but close enough that a good upside day would take it through the line. The momentum indicator is approaching its neutral line but for now is still below the line in the negative zone. The momentum indicator has, however, moved above its trigger line although the trigger has not yet turned to the up side. As for the Stochastic Oscillator, it is rapidly heading towards its neutral line and is above its positive sloping trigger line. Another day and it should breach that neutral line but let’s wait for it. For now, the short term rating remains BEARISH.
Looking over the various charts of the component stocks in the Index one feature jumps out at me. A vast majority of the charts show an intermediate term momentum that is either showing a positive divergence or confirming a positive shift in sentiment in the price action. The feeling (not one of my technical indicators) is that the bottom for uranium stocks may have been seen or is not far from being reached. As I said, this is just a feeling and at this point I wouldn’t risk any money on it so let’s wait to see how this develops.
MOMENTRUM
There are literally dozens of different “momentum” indicators. I have developed my own proprietary momentum indicator that is used in the table calculations. However, as you have noticed, my favorite momentum indicator is the Relative Strength Index (RSI). In my way of looking at things a momentum indicator gives us an indication of the strength of recent price action and from this we can determine if the price action is getting stronger, weaker or just doing nothing, from a particular investment (or speculative) time period point of view. Momentum indicators are usually, but not always, advance warning indicators of poential trend reversals. That's why it's important to watch what they are saying.
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