After The Close, 10 March 2008
Yeh, I know, it might not look like it now but things will get better. The only problem is WHEN? The charts and indicators should give us that message when it comes but in the mean time they are keeping us out as it drops. Is your investment advisor doing the same?
I put that last comment in there because as soon as I get too cocky the market has a way of slapping me down. So, I guess we should be expecting the market to turn around any time now.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index took another drubbing today with a loss of 0.168 points or 5.03%. There was only one, count them – one – winner out of the 50 Index component stocks. However, on the opposite side there were 43 losers and 6 unchanged. Of the five largest component stocks that one winner was in there. Cameco lost 2.8%, Denison lost 6.7%, First Uranium lost 1.6%, Paladin lost 5.2% and the winner was the long suffering Uranium One with a gain of -- are you ready -- 0.4%. WOW! The best performer on the day was that one winner, Uranium One, with a 0.4% gain while on the losers side we had several in the double digit range but the worst was Uranium Energy with a loss of 15.3%.
I can keep the analysis short today as nothing has changed towards the ratings. On the intermediate term the Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains inside its negative zone below its negative trigger line. The intermediate term rating continues to be BEARISH.
On the short term there is usually more activity in the indicators but with most of such activity on the down side there is no change to the rating. The Index continues to trade below its negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator continues to move lower inside its negative zone, below its negative trigger line. The momentum is getting very close to its oversold line so we might be expecting some hesitation in the downward trend, maybe even a rally, but don’t hold your breadth. The more aggressive Stochastic Oscillator has now entered its oversold zone for an advance warning of a possible halt to the down move, at least for a short period. Any hesitation or reversal of trend is not expected to last long, should it occur, but I’ll let the charts and indicators tell me what’s what. In the mean time the short term rating remains BEARISH.
Back in the 1980s if you were a conservative investor and were investing in the technology sector you would have been putting your money into IBM stock, the cream of the technology stocks. Unfortunately, after the plunge of 1987 IBM never recovered and continued lower as most other stocks went back into the bull phase. By 1993 IBM had lost 75% of its value (the total investor loss was many times more than all the loss from the Bre-X fiasco). It finally started a new bull move and by the late 1990s the investors of 10 to 15 years earlier were finally breaking even with their buy and hold for dear life investment. I have often wondered how many of these investors held on through this whole time. Also, the natural tendency, after a long period in the loser’s side, when the break even point comes many if not most investors are happy to get there money back and sell out. Lastly, I’ve often also wondered how many of these buy and hold investors survived those 10 to 15 years and lived to benefit from the subsequent IBM stock rise. I know that the buy and hold mentality is the majority mentality in the market place, but I was just wondering.
Yeh, I know, it might not look like it now but things will get better. The only problem is WHEN? The charts and indicators should give us that message when it comes but in the mean time they are keeping us out as it drops. Is your investment advisor doing the same?
I put that last comment in there because as soon as I get too cocky the market has a way of slapping me down. So, I guess we should be expecting the market to turn around any time now.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index took another drubbing today with a loss of 0.168 points or 5.03%. There was only one, count them – one – winner out of the 50 Index component stocks. However, on the opposite side there were 43 losers and 6 unchanged. Of the five largest component stocks that one winner was in there. Cameco lost 2.8%, Denison lost 6.7%, First Uranium lost 1.6%, Paladin lost 5.2% and the winner was the long suffering Uranium One with a gain of -- are you ready -- 0.4%. WOW! The best performer on the day was that one winner, Uranium One, with a 0.4% gain while on the losers side we had several in the double digit range but the worst was Uranium Energy with a loss of 15.3%.
I can keep the analysis short today as nothing has changed towards the ratings. On the intermediate term the Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains inside its negative zone below its negative trigger line. The intermediate term rating continues to be BEARISH.
On the short term there is usually more activity in the indicators but with most of such activity on the down side there is no change to the rating. The Index continues to trade below its negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator continues to move lower inside its negative zone, below its negative trigger line. The momentum is getting very close to its oversold line so we might be expecting some hesitation in the downward trend, maybe even a rally, but don’t hold your breadth. The more aggressive Stochastic Oscillator has now entered its oversold zone for an advance warning of a possible halt to the down move, at least for a short period. Any hesitation or reversal of trend is not expected to last long, should it occur, but I’ll let the charts and indicators tell me what’s what. In the mean time the short term rating remains BEARISH.
Back in the 1980s if you were a conservative investor and were investing in the technology sector you would have been putting your money into IBM stock, the cream of the technology stocks. Unfortunately, after the plunge of 1987 IBM never recovered and continued lower as most other stocks went back into the bull phase. By 1993 IBM had lost 75% of its value (the total investor loss was many times more than all the loss from the Bre-X fiasco). It finally started a new bull move and by the late 1990s the investors of 10 to 15 years earlier were finally breaking even with their buy and hold for dear life investment. I have often wondered how many of these investors held on through this whole time. Also, the natural tendency, after a long period in the loser’s side, when the break even point comes many if not most investors are happy to get there money back and sell out. Lastly, I’ve often also wondered how many of these buy and hold investors survived those 10 to 15 years and lived to benefit from the subsequent IBM stock rise. I know that the buy and hold mentality is the majority mentality in the market place, but I was just wondering.
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