for week ending 18 November 2011
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 18 Nov 2011
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
This posting is getting harder and harder. Just too many things going on at the same time. Unless something drastic happens I will be posting only on the week-ends for a while, usually late Sunday afternoon.
The down side seems to be in control of the uranium stocks but there is a good support just below the Friday close and we just may be in for another rally. The down trending wedge pattern shown on today’s chart is also positive as the most likely scenario is an upside break. On the negative side we may just be in the final stages of forming a bearish head and shoulder pattern. It all depends upon if the Index can stay above that support level. On another positive side the Stochastic Oscillator is not as negative as the Index and may end up giving us a very short term positive divergence, but that still remains to be seen.
On Friday the Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed slightly higher, by 0.46 points or 0.32%. There were 23 winners, 16 losers and 11 stragglers. Cameco lost 0.4%, Denison gained 2.0%, Extract was a straggler, Paladin lost 0.6% and Uranium One gained 3.0%. The best daily winner was Xemplar with a gain of 20.0% while the loser of the day was Quaterra with a loss of 10.1%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF gained 0.9% while Global X Uranium ETF gained 0.8%.
For the full week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index lost 122.50 points or 2.55% while the Daily Index lost 1.97%. There were 15 weekly winners, 30 losers and 5 stragglers. Cameco lost 3.2% on the week, Denison gained 3.4%, Extract gained 5.3%, Paladin gained 1.3% and Uranium One lost 7.8%. The best weekly winner was Fission Energy with a gain of 19.5% while the loser of the week was USEC with a loss of 19.4%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 3.8% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 4.6%.
There is still no change in the long term indicators so I wouldn’t bother to go through the details. The rating, at the Friday close, remains BEARISH for both Indices.
Trend: The Daily Index dropped below its intermediate term moving average line during the week and remains there. The moving average line is now pointing lower.
Strength: The intermediate term momentum indicator remains in its negative zone and below its negative sloping trigger line.
Volume: The volume indicator is pointing slightly upwards and is above its positive sloping trigger line.
Despite the positive volume indicator the net effect of all the indicators give us a BEARISH rating for the intermediate term, at the Friday close. This bear is not quite confirmed by the short term moving average line. The short term line is heading lower and is almost right on top of the intermediate term line but has not quite crossed below the intermediate term line. It needs another down day for that.
Trend: The Daily Index is now two weeks below its short term moving average line with the line remaining in a negative slope.
Strength: The short term momentum indicator is moving lower in the negative zone and below its negative trigger line.
Volume: The daily volume action is mixed. On the two highest trading days of this past week one was on an upside move while one was on a downside move. Nothing yet to take from this action.
At the Friday close the short term rating remains BEARISH with the very short term moving average line confirming by dropping below the short term line.
As for a guess at the immediate direction of least resistance, I’ll go with the down side although the Stochastic Oscillator is suggesting that the strength behind the move into new reaction lows was somewhat muted and a turn around should not be unexpected.