After The Close, 17 June 2009
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 176.46
High: 178.48
Low: 165.30
Close: 170.95
Volume: 9443
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 5 0 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
I guess I can still say it’s still in the box but the negative days need to end here or else the Index will not be in the box any longer. Let’s see if I have this right, uranium moves higher by $3.00 this week but the Index of stocks plunges 10%. Hummm – doesn’t look like any cause and effect here.
One has to look at the previous post just below this one to get a smile on one’s face. If only one had the Penny Arcade to access late last year or early this year, one would be sitting pretty. Of course, with an average of 30 pennies advancing by almost 500% in the past 6 months there must be quite a few with even better individual performances. I would suspect that the uranium pennies might have given us a similar performance but looking through my file most of these penny uranium stocks have poor daily trading histories.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower by 6.28 points or 3.54%. There were only 9 winners, 39 losers and 2 confused. We had quite a jolt in one of the five largest stocks. Cameco lost 1.7%, First Uranium lost 30.7% (is this another Uranium One?), Paladin gained 0.7%, Uranium One lost 2.9% and USEC gained 4.3%. The best winner was Denison Mines (a previous top 5 stock) with a gain of 9.2% while the loser of the day was that First Uranium loss of 30.7%.
Things are getting tight on the intermediate term. The Index closed sharply lower, below the intermediate term moving average line although the line is still trending upwards. Although a good part of the day was spent below the box in the end the Index closed inside the box. Okay for today. The momentum indicator is heading lower fast but is still in its positive zone. It is below its negative trigger line. The volume indicator is also starting to trend lower but remains just above its positive trigger line. With the crossing of the moving average line the intermediate term rating has been downgraded to a - NEUTRAL rating.
Nothing in the short term is encouraging. The Index is below its negative moving average line and the momentum indicator is in its negative zone below its negative trigger line. Of greater concern is the increase in volume activity (although still only a slight increase) today. Volume increase on a down day is not good. For today the short term rating remains BEARISH.
Looks like I’m getting a perfect score with my immediate direction lateral guess. Perfect from the standpoint of being wrong. Should I go with another lateral guess? Unless we are into a very weak market, three bad days in a row would suggest some rest period ahead. The Stochastic Oscillator has entered its oversold zone which is an added caution that the plunge may take a breather. So, lateral for another day.
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 176.46
High: 178.48
Low: 165.30
Close: 170.95
Volume: 9443
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 5 0 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
I guess I can still say it’s still in the box but the negative days need to end here or else the Index will not be in the box any longer. Let’s see if I have this right, uranium moves higher by $3.00 this week but the Index of stocks plunges 10%. Hummm – doesn’t look like any cause and effect here.
One has to look at the previous post just below this one to get a smile on one’s face. If only one had the Penny Arcade to access late last year or early this year, one would be sitting pretty. Of course, with an average of 30 pennies advancing by almost 500% in the past 6 months there must be quite a few with even better individual performances. I would suspect that the uranium pennies might have given us a similar performance but looking through my file most of these penny uranium stocks have poor daily trading histories.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower by 6.28 points or 3.54%. There were only 9 winners, 39 losers and 2 confused. We had quite a jolt in one of the five largest stocks. Cameco lost 1.7%, First Uranium lost 30.7% (is this another Uranium One?), Paladin gained 0.7%, Uranium One lost 2.9% and USEC gained 4.3%. The best winner was Denison Mines (a previous top 5 stock) with a gain of 9.2% while the loser of the day was that First Uranium loss of 30.7%.
Things are getting tight on the intermediate term. The Index closed sharply lower, below the intermediate term moving average line although the line is still trending upwards. Although a good part of the day was spent below the box in the end the Index closed inside the box. Okay for today. The momentum indicator is heading lower fast but is still in its positive zone. It is below its negative trigger line. The volume indicator is also starting to trend lower but remains just above its positive trigger line. With the crossing of the moving average line the intermediate term rating has been downgraded to a - NEUTRAL rating.
Nothing in the short term is encouraging. The Index is below its negative moving average line and the momentum indicator is in its negative zone below its negative trigger line. Of greater concern is the increase in volume activity (although still only a slight increase) today. Volume increase on a down day is not good. For today the short term rating remains BEARISH.
Looks like I’m getting a perfect score with my immediate direction lateral guess. Perfect from the standpoint of being wrong. Should I go with another lateral guess? Unless we are into a very weak market, three bad days in a row would suggest some rest period ahead. The Stochastic Oscillator has entered its oversold zone which is an added caution that the plunge may take a breather. So, lateral for another day.
1 comment:
Hi Merv,
I recall when we were reaching our new recovery highs a few weeks back you stated that we could go back and test the 170 level, but that doing so would not derail your call to 300 on the index.
Lucky guess? Well now that we have reached that 170 level do you feel differently about the 300 level call?
Has something happened in your analysis that makes this 170 look different than what you expected?
Obviously it has to go up to get there, and the bull market has been compromised, but isn't this kind of what you expected?
For what its worth I am a buyer here, as many are at critical support levels. They will get a short hook on failure.
A gamblers strategy I guess.
Your thoughts?
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