Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 09 May 2008
Friday’s Daily data
Open: 292.62
High: 299.37
Low: 284.00
Close: 292.04
Volume: 6493
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
It was up hill all week with a Friday close on the up side. Going back to the P&F chart of last week we now have a valid P&F break-out on the up side. However, there is a significant resistance at the break-out level so another 5 points (i.e. 300 on the Index) would really confirm the break and provide us with an initial projection on the up side to the 405 level. When dealing with a P&F chart it is sometimes difficult to determine if the chart reflects action on the short, intermediate or long term. This P&F chart is most likely representing action from a short term perspective although it could also be reflecting the intermediate term. Let’s just cut it in half and call it a mid term chart.
The daily action remains positive although it does look like it is slowing down a little. The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday up 2.34 points or 0.81%. There were 29 winners, 16 losers and 5 unchanged. Of the five largest stocks Cameco lost 0.9%, Denison gained 0.1%, First Uranium lost 0.7%, Paladin lost 0.8% and Uranium One lost 1.9%. The best daily performer was Mawson Resources with a gain of 27.8% while the worst daily performer was Yellowcake Mining with a loss of 3.9%. If that’s the best that the losing side can do, a measly 3.9% loss, then maybe we are on a roll.
On the week things look quite good. The Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed up on the week by 679.94 points or 10.65%, the best weekly gain in a long time. There were 39 weekly winners, 6 weekly losers and 5 going nowhere. As for the five largest stocks they did okay, except for one. Cameco gained 13.2%, Denison gained 15.2%, First Uranium gained 5.1%, Paladin gained 15.1% while Uranium One lost 1.3%. The best gainer for the week was Mawson with a gain of 42.0% while the worst loser was Freewest Resources with a loss of 11.3%.
Looking at the weekly chart we see that the Index is still far from the negative sloping moving average line. The momentum indicator is still in its negative zone and unlike the other time periods this momentum indicator has not shown a positive divergence. We are also still inside the downward sloping wedge pattern. On the long term the rating remains BEARISH.
Going over to the daily Index We are seeing things start to happen. The Index closed above its intermediate term moving average line on Thursday and remained above on Friday. The line, however, is still sloping downwards but is starting to turn towards the up side. It might take another day or two depending upon the Index action. As for the momentum indicator, it is still in its negative zone but above its positive trigger line. Although the Index is still having trouble breaching that resistance from the “box” activity the momentum indicator had moved above its level and remains above. As for the volume indicator, it continues to move higher above its positive trigger line. It is approaching its previous high from the late February activity so it is suggesting speculative interest is picking up. Despite all this the rating has not changed from Thursday, it remains + NEUTRAL, just a level below a full bullish rating.
As for the short term, The Index continues to move higher above its short term positive sloping moving average line. The momentum indicator continues to move higher inside its positive zone, above its positive trigger line. The daily volume, although not all that impressive, is better than it has been over the past several weeks. Finally, the very short term moving average line continues to move further away from the short term line, on the up side, suggesting a strengthening short term move in progress. Putting all that together we continue with a short term BULLISH rating.
As for the immediate term or direction, everything looks okay for the up side but with a warning. The Index remains well above the very short term positive moving average line and the aggressive Stochastic Oscillator remains deep in its positive zone. In fact the SO entered its overbought zone on Thursday and remains there on Friday. The SO trigger line has almost is advancing on the SO and the two are very close making it possible for the SO to break below its trigger line with one bad day of trading. The Index itself had moved above the box resistance level on Friday but couldn’t hold there and closed below the resistance. Maybe one more thrust will do it but we’ll have to keep an eye on it. Still the direction of least resistance is to the up side.
It’s almost time to get your feet off the coffee table, finish that beer, program your TV and start thinking about getting back into the uranium stocks. At worst one should now be making those plans once the ratings perk up just a little bit more. Of course the gambler should already be taking his positions but with greater risk. Although technical analysis IS NOT perfect and reversals DO happen one reduces his risk of failure when investing/speculating with the direction of the trend. AND the technicals will quickly tell you if a mistake was made and protect your capital with the minimum loss.
for week ending 09 May 2008
Friday’s Daily data
Open: 292.62
High: 299.37
Low: 284.00
Close: 292.04
Volume: 6493
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
It was up hill all week with a Friday close on the up side. Going back to the P&F chart of last week we now have a valid P&F break-out on the up side. However, there is a significant resistance at the break-out level so another 5 points (i.e. 300 on the Index) would really confirm the break and provide us with an initial projection on the up side to the 405 level. When dealing with a P&F chart it is sometimes difficult to determine if the chart reflects action on the short, intermediate or long term. This P&F chart is most likely representing action from a short term perspective although it could also be reflecting the intermediate term. Let’s just cut it in half and call it a mid term chart.
The daily action remains positive although it does look like it is slowing down a little. The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday up 2.34 points or 0.81%. There were 29 winners, 16 losers and 5 unchanged. Of the five largest stocks Cameco lost 0.9%, Denison gained 0.1%, First Uranium lost 0.7%, Paladin lost 0.8% and Uranium One lost 1.9%. The best daily performer was Mawson Resources with a gain of 27.8% while the worst daily performer was Yellowcake Mining with a loss of 3.9%. If that’s the best that the losing side can do, a measly 3.9% loss, then maybe we are on a roll.
On the week things look quite good. The Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed up on the week by 679.94 points or 10.65%, the best weekly gain in a long time. There were 39 weekly winners, 6 weekly losers and 5 going nowhere. As for the five largest stocks they did okay, except for one. Cameco gained 13.2%, Denison gained 15.2%, First Uranium gained 5.1%, Paladin gained 15.1% while Uranium One lost 1.3%. The best gainer for the week was Mawson with a gain of 42.0% while the worst loser was Freewest Resources with a loss of 11.3%.
Looking at the weekly chart we see that the Index is still far from the negative sloping moving average line. The momentum indicator is still in its negative zone and unlike the other time periods this momentum indicator has not shown a positive divergence. We are also still inside the downward sloping wedge pattern. On the long term the rating remains BEARISH.
Going over to the daily Index We are seeing things start to happen. The Index closed above its intermediate term moving average line on Thursday and remained above on Friday. The line, however, is still sloping downwards but is starting to turn towards the up side. It might take another day or two depending upon the Index action. As for the momentum indicator, it is still in its negative zone but above its positive trigger line. Although the Index is still having trouble breaching that resistance from the “box” activity the momentum indicator had moved above its level and remains above. As for the volume indicator, it continues to move higher above its positive trigger line. It is approaching its previous high from the late February activity so it is suggesting speculative interest is picking up. Despite all this the rating has not changed from Thursday, it remains + NEUTRAL, just a level below a full bullish rating.
As for the short term, The Index continues to move higher above its short term positive sloping moving average line. The momentum indicator continues to move higher inside its positive zone, above its positive trigger line. The daily volume, although not all that impressive, is better than it has been over the past several weeks. Finally, the very short term moving average line continues to move further away from the short term line, on the up side, suggesting a strengthening short term move in progress. Putting all that together we continue with a short term BULLISH rating.
As for the immediate term or direction, everything looks okay for the up side but with a warning. The Index remains well above the very short term positive moving average line and the aggressive Stochastic Oscillator remains deep in its positive zone. In fact the SO entered its overbought zone on Thursday and remains there on Friday. The SO trigger line has almost is advancing on the SO and the two are very close making it possible for the SO to break below its trigger line with one bad day of trading. The Index itself had moved above the box resistance level on Friday but couldn’t hold there and closed below the resistance. Maybe one more thrust will do it but we’ll have to keep an eye on it. Still the direction of least resistance is to the up side.
It’s almost time to get your feet off the coffee table, finish that beer, program your TV and start thinking about getting back into the uranium stocks. At worst one should now be making those plans once the ratings perk up just a little bit more. Of course the gambler should already be taking his positions but with greater risk. Although technical analysis IS NOT perfect and reversals DO happen one reduces his risk of failure when investing/speculating with the direction of the trend. AND the technicals will quickly tell you if a mistake was made and protect your capital with the minimum loss.
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