for week ending 16 December 2011
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 16 Dec 2011
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
Well, it’s not a total disaster yet. The Daily Index remains above its previous Oct low of 118 so I guess that’s a good thing. The action also remains within that downward sloping channel shown here a couple of weeks back. I hope that the Index will not move to the lower support line as that requires a move to the 2008 low of 90 so, one suspects that eventually the breaking of the upper resistance line is the most likely direction once the Index wants to get out of the channel.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday with a daily loss of 0.27 points or 0.21%. There were 15 daily winners, 23 losers and 12 stocks needing a blood transfusion. Cameco lost 0.6%, Denison gained 2.9%, Paladin lost 3.7%, Uranium One gained 0.9% and Uranium Participation gained 0.7%. The best daily winner was East Asia with a gain of 17.8% while the loser of the day was Pitchstone with a loss of 15.7%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 0.4% while Global X Uranium ETF needed a transfusion.
As for the full week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index lost 343.21 points or 7.92% (the Daily lost 6.05% on the week). There were only 3 weekly winners, 44 losers and 3 stocks needing a transfusion. Cameco lost 5.5%, Denison lost 3.4%, Paladin lost 9.9%, Uranium One lost 10.0% and Uranium Participation lost 3.5%. The best weekly winner was Formation Metals with a weekly gain of 7.7% while the loser of the bunch was East Asia with a weekly loss of 27.4% just edging out Virginia Energy which lost 27.3%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 5.8% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 6.8%.
Suffice it to say that there is still nothing good to say about the long term indicators or ratings. Both the Daily and Weekly Uranium Indices are still rated as BEARISH at the Friday close.
Trend: The Daily Index continues to trade below its negatively sloping intermediate term moving average line.
Strength: The intermediate term momentum indicator remains below its neutral line and below its negatively sloping trigger line. There is a very slight potential positive divergence in the indicator to give us some grasp at good news. We’ll see if anything comes off it.
Volume: The volume indicator continues to confirm the price action by closing below recent lows and below its negative sloping trigger line.
For the intermediate term the rating, at the Friday close, remains BEARISH. This is confirmed by the short term moving average line remaining below the intermediate term line.
Trend: The short term isn’t any brighter than the other periods. The past week’s action remained below the short term moving average line and the line slope remains pointing downward.
Strength: The short term momentum indicator remains in its negative zone below its negative trigger line. Here, that slight positive divergence is a little more noticeable so maybe a rally or something is in store just ahead.
Volume: The daily volume action remains low with the highest volume in several weeks was on Friday, a down day for the Daily Index.
At the Friday close the short term rating remains BEARISH. This is confirmed by the very short term moving average line.
Do I dare guess what the immediate future holds? Here goes, I am looking for some upside action ahead. The Stochastic Oscillator is in its oversold zone and has leveled off, hopefully in preparation for some upside move.
The Christmas season is upon us and I am taking some time off. I don’t expect to be posting for the next couple of weeks, but who knows? If something really interesting should happen and I happen to be watching the news, maybe I might post but in the mean time I will be relaxing.
Here’s wishing all a VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS and a profitable NEW YEAR.