for week ending 23 September 2011
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 23 Sep 2011
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
We all should have just stayed in bed and not bothered with the uranium stocks. A disaster is a disaster regardless of how one looks at it. Is there any good or even slightly better than bad news? Well, yes there is some encouraging news in the charts but nothing one can run with and start spending hard earned capital on. The Daily Index (representing the large quality type stocks) has dropped just a little below its last years July low but not yet enough to panic about. It is in a zone of heavy earlier activity but that zone goes all the way down to the 90 level so that’s no great help. The Weekly Index (representing the smaller speculative stocks) is still above its last years low despite the real drubbing it has been taking recently. There is hope here that this Weekly Index will hold above its previous low, but that’s only a hope. Let’s go through our routine and see what we have after this week’s disaster.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday with a daily loss of 2.51 points or 1.81%. There were 10 winners on the day, 28 losers and 12 stocks just running around. Cameco lost 2.1%, Denison lost 6.3%, Extract was just running around, Paladin gained 2.9% and Uranium One lost 3.5%. The best daily winner was Strateco with a gain of 6.5% while the loser of the day was Mawson with a loss of 16.7%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF was just running around while Global X Uranium ETF lost 1.1%.
For the full week (do you really want to know?) the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed lower by 653.40 points or 13.15% (the Daily Index closed down only 9.92%). There were 5 weekly winners, 43 losers and 2 stocks running around. Cameco lost 10.0% on the week, Denison lost 17.4%, Extract gained 0.1%, Paladin lost 12.7% and Uranium One lost 12.3%. The best weekly winner was Fission Energy with a weekly gain of 9.1% while the loser of the week was Mawson with a loss of 31.4%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 8.1% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 15.8%.
No use going through the indicators here, everything is still very negative and the long term ratings remain BEARISH for both the Daily and Weekly Indices.
There are some interesting things going on here so I’ll go through the process.
Trend: The trend remains towards the down side with the Daily Index trading below its intermediate term negative sloping moving average line.
Strength: Here, there is a little bit of good news. Although the intermediate term momentum indicator remains in its negative zone and below its negative sloping trigger line it is not into new low territory as the Index is. We have what might turn out to be a positive divergence in the indicator but that would have to wait for a turn to the up side before we know of its final low point. We only have divergence (as far as I am concerned) when we have the reversal of trend to show the low or high level that the indicator had reached.
Volume: The volume indicator is no help here. It is into new bear lows, below its negative sloping trigger line.
Despite a little positive news in the momentum indicator the intermediate term rating remains BEARISH at the Friday close. This is confirmed by the short term moving average line remaining below the intermediate term line.
The Daily Index broke below its August support level, which is never a good sign. The short term momentum indicator is, however, still above its August level for a potential positive divergence as with the intermediate term indicator.
Trend: The trend remains negative with the Daily Index below its negative sloping moving average line.
Strength: As mentioned above, the momentum indicator is starting to strengthen but remains in its negative zone below its negative sloping trigger line.
Volume: The daily volume action remains weak with the daily volume usually below its 15 day average volume. On days when the daily volume increased above its 15 day average were usually days of downside Index action and not a good sign.
As with the intermediate term we do have some potential positives in the momentum indicator but when putting it all together the short term remains BEARISH. This bear is confirmed by the very short term moving average line remaining above the short term line.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, that should be the down side if Thursday and Friday’s actions are any hint. However, the Stochastic Oscillator is in its oversold zone and in the process of turning upwards (it has not quite made it yet). It is also almost ready to move above its trigger line. One day just might do it. So, although everything looks bad I’ll go with the up side as the direction very early in the week.