for week ending 16 September 2011
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 16 Sep 2011
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
Would you believe 5 power outages in less than 2 weeks, two in one day? Isn’t this a great country?
Last week’s rise in the price of uranium seemed to have done nothing for the stocks. It was basically another flat week with a few stocks causing ulcers. We are back into one of those “box” patterns which long time readers may remember. We are awaiting the Daily Index to get out of the box but another week has gone by and the box remains unbreached. Nothing much has changed in the indicators to cause us to start getting all excited but let’s go through the exercise anyway.
It will still take some time before we get any real change in the long term indicators.
Trend: The Daily and Weekly Indices remain way below their negative sloping long term moving average lines. No change here.
Strength: The long term momentum indicators remain in negative territory. They are now moving more in a lateral direction but not yet upwards. While in this lateral trend they are moving above and below their trigger lines, which are also lateral in direction.
Volume: The Daily Index volume indicator seems to have bottomed out but not yet turned around. It remains slightly below its still negative trigger line.
As of the Friday close the long term rating remains BEARISH.
The intermediate term is starting to give us just a little hint that it might be ready to reverse direction, but not quite yet.
Trend: The Daily Index action is now in a lateral direction. This and a negative sloping moving average line is causing the two to be in a closing mode. However, the Daily Index remains below the moving average line for now.
Strength: The intermediate term momentum indicator seems to be firming up and appears as if it wants to start moving upwards. For now it remains in its negative zone but is oscillating above and below its trigger line. At the Friday close it finished the week just a hair above its positive sloping trigger.
Volume: Although in a lateral drift the volume indicator closed the week just very slightly below its neutral sloping trigger line.
At the Friday close the intermediate term rating remains BEARISH but may be very close to some improvement. The short term moving average line remains below the intermediate term line for confirmation of this bear.
We should see any significant changes in the indicators first in these short term ones.
Trend: Since the Daily Index started its box pattern in early Aug it has been toying with its short term moving average line by moving above and below the line as it oscillates within the box. At the Friday close the Daily Index ended just very, very slightly below its negative sloping moving average line.
Strength: The short term momentum indicator is the closest momentum indicator to breaking back into the positive zone but still, on Friday it finished just below its neutral line. The indicator is above its trigger line and the trigger is in a positive slope.
Volume: The daily volume action remains pretty low. Unfortunately, on Friday we had the highest volume in the past 3 or 4 weeks but that was on a negative Index move. A significant percentage of that daily volume was due to one stock so maybe we should not place too much emphasis on that volume action.
At the Friday close the short term rating is BEARISH but this can change from day to day. The bear is confirmed by the very short term moving average line remaining below the short term line.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, I’m going to go with the up side although I do not see an explosion in that direction yet.