for week ending 09 September 2011
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 09 Sep 2011
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
Do you believe it? 5 power failures in the space of less than two weeks. Welcome to the wonderful world of the Quebec Hydro. Third world countries have nothing on us.
Yesterday, a power failure that set my schedule back. This morning just as I was getting ready to finally put the weekly commentary together, another power failure. We could hear the transformers going. When they go it’s a very loud crack. And when the transformer is behind your yard that crack is very, very loud. I don’t understand why in this day and age the Power company could not have transformers that at least have a safety feature protecting them from failures.
As the chart of the daily Index shows, nothing much has happened this past week. One can say, same old, same old. So, let’s just go straight to the weekly analysis.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday with a loss of 2.60 points or 1.70%. There were 17 winners, 31 losers and 2 stocks not in the game. Cameco lost 4.5% on Friday, Denison lost 4.5%, Extract gained all of 0.1%, Paladin lost 3.7% and Uranium One lost 4.1%. With the biggies losing in the neighborhood of 4% on Friday but the Index only losing only 1.7% the small stocks were probably then ones holding the losses down. The best winner of the day was Pitchstone with a daily gain of 14.3% while the loser of the day was Pele Mountain with a loss of 11.4%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 3.2% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 3.7%.
The Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index lost 10.34 points or 0.20% during the week (the Daily lost 1.1% during the week). There were 18 weekly winners, 31 weekly losers and one stock not in the game. Cameco lost 4.4% during the week, Denison lost 3.3%, Extract gained 1.9%, Paladin lost 7.5% and Uranium One lost 2.9%. The best weekly winner was U308 with a weekly gain of 58.7% while the loser of the week was USEC with a loss of 13.6%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 4.2% on the week while Global X Uranium ETF lost 3.8%.
To go through the three time periods with an analysis of where we are would almost seem like a recording from last week. However, I’ve got to look like I’m doing something so here goes.
First, just check out the two long term (weekly) charts posted earlier and try to visualize the difference in performance in the two. The large (quality) stocks do not move nearly as well (Daily Index) as the smaller (speculative) stocks do (Weekly Index).
Trend: As both long term Index charts show (posted earlier) both Indices are still well below their long term negative sloping averages. The Daily Index indicates the Index at a long term support level while the Weekly Index is also at a support from 2009 activity but about 20% above the low of 2010. What to make of this is anyone’s guess.
Strength: Both Indices long term momentum indicators are in their negative zones. The daily version of the Daily Index shows the long term momentum just dropping below its trigger line although the trigger is still slightly sloping upwards. In addition, the momentum indicator is showing a very nice up trend line with the Friday close of the indicator being just above the line.
Volume: The volume indicator continues to drift sideways but remains below its negative sloping trigger line.
On the long term the rating remains BEARISH at the Friday close.
Trend: The Daily Index continues to trade below its intermediate term moving average line.
Strength: The intermediate term momentum indicator remains in its negative zone but is moving higher and showing greater improved strength versus the Index. However, the indicator did drop below its trigger line although the trigger is still slightly positive. In addition, the indicator does have a well defined up trend line from its early August low with the momentum still slightly above the line.
Volume: The volume indicator has again dropped below its trigger line with the trigger pointing downward.
The intermediate term rating remains BEARISH at the Friday close. This is confirmed by the short term moving average remaining below the intermediate term average.
Trend: As the short term chart shows, the Daily Index remains below its resistance level which is at 160 give or take one or two points. The Index is also below its negative sloping short term moving average line.
Strength: The short term momentum indicator remains in its negative zone and has once more dropped below its negative trigger line. We have a similar up trend line in the indicator but in this case the indicator has just dropped below the trend line.
Volume: The daily volume action remains very low.
On the short term the rating remains BEARISH on Friday with the very short term moving average moving lower fast and sitting right on top of the short term moving average line BUT not quite below the line, so no confirmation today but most likely on Monday.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, I would think that is to the down side although the Stochastic Oscillator continues above its trigger line with no reversal shown.