for week ending 02 September 2011
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 02 Sep 2011
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
Posting has sure been sporadic over the past few weeks, what with floods, computer crashes, laziness, etc. Hopefully, I am back on track now with posting a couple of times during the week plus week ends until things get cooking again. With a mundane market as we have had over the past months there is very little to really post about every day.
Looking through the weekly Table we see that most stocks are still in bearish mode with only 18% bullish on the intermediate term and 51% still bearish. Looking through the individual stocks I get the distinct impression that more and more are in bottoming patterns getting ready for a good bullish move. All they need is some gentle kick in the behind to get started. Anyway, let’s see where we are on the Friday close.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed Friday down 3.36 points or 2.16%. There were 10 daily winners, 30 losers and a whole lot of weenies (10 of them). Cameco lost 2.3%, Denison lost 1.9%, Extract was a daily weenie, Paladin lost 4.8% and Uranium One lost 6.5%. The best daily winner was Pele Mountain with a gain of 5.0% while the loser of the day was Wealth Minerals with a loss of 18.8%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 2.7% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 3.1%.
On the full week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index lost 22.32 points or 0.43% while the Daily Index gained 0.12%. There were 23 weekly winners, 25 losers and only 2 weenies. Cameco gained 1.6% on the week, Denison gained 2.7%, Extract gained 0.9%, Paladin lost 6.5% and Uranium One lost 11.0%. The best weekly winner was Benton with a gain of 16.7% while the loser of the week was Forum Uranium with a loss of 16.7%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 1.6% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 1.5%.
Nothing much changes on the long term.
Trend: At the Friday close both Daily and Weekly Indices are still well below their long term moving averages with the averages sloping downward. The Indices may be in the process of bottoming but from the long term perspective this is still not really noticeable.
Strength: Both long term momentum indicators remain in their negative zones. The Daily long term momentum indicator is just a hair above its trigger line with the trigger still very slightly with an upward slope.
Volume: The Daily Index volume indicator (the Weekly Index does not have volume information) continues to move slightly lower below its still negative sloping trigger line.
At the Friday close the long term rating remains BEARISH.
Things are getting closer to some change in the intermediate term but close does not really count.
Trend: The Daily Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line, although not much below.
Strength: The intermediate term momentum indicator continues in its negative zone but looks to be strengthening, if only just a little, versus the Index action. It is above its trigger line with the trigger in an upward slope.
Volume: The volume indicator appears to be in a bottoming pattern and closed on Friday just above its trigger line. The trigger, however, is still in a slight downward slope.
Putting it all together we still have a Friday close rating of BEARISH. This is confirmed with the short term moving average line remaining below the intermediate term line.
Short term things are a little murky. Everything seems to be bottoming out but the last couple of days sort of put a halt to that. So, let’s see how the week ended from the short term perspective.
Trend: The Daily Index broke above its short term moving average line the previous Friday and stayed above the line throughout this past week. Thursday and Friday were down days but the close on Friday was still above the line if only just barely. The moving average line itself remains sloping upwards. In addition, we do have a resistance level that had halted the advance, at the 160 mark. The Index needs to overcome this resistance to be able to advance further.
Strength: The short term momentum indicator just nudged through its neutral line but by week’s end was back in the negative zone. It has moved below its trigger line although the trigger is still slightly on the upward slope. From the early Aug low in the indicator we can draw an up trend line. The indicator remains above the trend line but that could quickly change with another day or two of Index downside action.
Volume: The volume action remains very low although the Friday volume closed just above its short term 15 day average volume value.
All in all, because of the momentum indicator I cannot give the short term a full bull rating. On the short term the rating is + NEUTRAL on the Friday close. The very short term moving average line is moving downward fast but closed on Friday almost on top of the short term line for confirmation that the full bear is not here yet, at least not at the Friday close.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, that can only be to the down side. All very short term trends are heading in that direction as is the Stochastic Oscillator.