for week ending 29 July 2011
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 29 Jul 2011
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
As you can see the summer lazy season is still here. With uranium taking a $2.00 hit early this week it was no surprise that the stocks did not do well at all. It was the speculative stocks that were once more slightly harder hit during the week. We can see two support levels ahead, one at the 168 level and the next at the 160 level. That 160 level should hold unless we are in for worse things than envisioned at this time.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday on the down side with a loss of 0.83 points or 0.47%. There were 17 winners, 21 losers and a whole lot of bummers (12 of them). Cameco lost 1.9%, Denison gained 4.7%, Extract was a bummer, Paladin gained 1.1% and Uranium One lost 1.5%. The best daily winner was a tie between Pitchstone and Uracan each with gains of 11.11%. The worst daily loser was First Uranium with a loss of 14.6%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 0.2% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 0.2%.
For the full week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed lower by 358.95 points or 5.85%. The Daily Index lost 4.22% on the week. There were 9 weekly winners, 40 weekly loser and one bummer. Cameco lost 2.0%, Denison lost 1.9%, Extract gained 2.5%, Paladin lost 2.9% and Uranium One lost 4.0%. The best weekly winner was Formation Metals with a gain of 13.3% while the loser of the week was First Uranium with a loss of 30.5%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 2.9% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 4.7%.
Nothing much has changed from the long term perspective from last week.
Trend: Both Indices are still below their negative sloping long term moving average lines.
Strength: Both momentum indicators are still in their negative zones and had been heading upwards although they both have just dropped slightly below their still positive trigger lines.
Volume: The volume indicator is still not looking that hot and remains below its negative trigger line.
The long term rating remains BEARISH.
Trend: The Daily Index is back sitting right on top of its still negative moving average line.
Strength: The momentum indicator has been moving nicely upwards from a low point in its negative zone but has not yet breached above the neutral line. With this week’s negative moves the momentum indicator has now dropped back below its now negative trigger line.
Volume: The volume indicator had been above its trigger line but dropped below the trigger on Friday. The trigger line is still very slightly positive in slope.
For the intermediate term the rating is now at the NEUTRAL level, mid way between a bull or bear. The short term moving average remains slightly above the intermediate term line and has not confirmed a bear yet. It remains positive.
Trend: The Daily Index is now below its negative sloping short term moving average line.
Strength: The momentum indicator has once more dropped into its negative zone and is below its negative trigger line.
Volume: The daily volume action remains low and not encouraging.
On the short term the rating is now back to the BEARISH mode. The very short term moving average line has turned downward but has not quite breached below the short term line for a non-confirmation of the bear. Possibly in a day or so it will drop below the intermediate term line, that is, if the Index does not perk up.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, I’m going with the down side as the Stochastic Oscillator seems to have no intention of turning on a dime while the very short term moving average line is now in a downward path.