for week ending 17 June 2011
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 17 Jun 2011
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
Darn, it still looks like the uranium stocks have not seen their bottom. I had hoped that the bottom would have been reached some time back. Just shows that technical analysis is not perfect – but it’s the best you discipline for investing, speculating or gambling in the market. So, let’s see where the week’s activities have left us.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday with a gain of 2.05 points or 1.26%. There were 22 winners, 23 losers and 5 stocks bumming around. Cameco lost 2.4%, Denison gained 5.3%, Extract was bumming around, Paladin gained 2.1% and Uranium One gained 1.1%. The best winner of the day was Mawson with a gain of 22.7% while the loser of the day was Continental Precious with a loss of 9.7%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF gained 0.9% while Global X Uranium ETF gained 0.2%.
For the full week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index lost 267.23 points or 4.79% (the Daily lost only 2.28%). There were 12 weekly winners, 38 weekly losers and no stocks bumming around for the full week. Cameco lost 8.5%, Denison gained 1.7%, Extract gained 3.3%, Paladin lost 10.5% and Uranium One gained 3.2%. The best weekly winner was First Uranium with a gain of 29.6% while the loser of the week was U308 Corp with a loss of 34.8%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 0.9% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 3.3%.
The long term indicators remain a disaster area so no need to go into them yet. They are all negative and the long term rating remains BEARISH.
The intermediate term looks a little better but not by much. All the indicators are also still negative so I’ll just go straight to the rating, BEARISH. The short term moving average confirms this bear.
On the short term one should see the early beginnings of a turn around here. Nothing yet to see here but things are getting very, very close to a possible change in the short term indicators. For now the Daily Index remains just very slightly below its negative sloping moving average line. In fact it is so close that the daily high on Friday was above the line but the Index still closed just below. As for the momentum indicator, it remains in its negative zone but also seems to be perking up. It has crossed above its trigger line but the trigger is still in a negative slope. The daily volume action is still relatively small as it has been for over two and a half months, since the plunge days. Putting it all together we still have a short term rating that is BEARISH with the very short term moving average line confirming.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, I’m going for the up side. Friday’s Daily Index seems to suggest a bounce in progress and the Stochastic Oscillator has been in a climb for several days despite the negative Index action during that time.
One point of positive interest are the momentum indicators. Although the long term momentum indicator remains confirming the Index action both the intermediate and short term indicators are giving us a positive divergence indication. Should the Daily Index move higher from here those divergences will be confirmed. So, let’s look towards the up side. How far up? Well, there is just too much damage done to the Indices so we should be in for a rally but possibly not yet a trend reversal (from the long term perspective).