Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review

for week ending 15 April 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index

Market Data for Friday 15 Apr 2011

Open: 195.84

High: 198.88

Low: 193.90

Close: 196.11

Volume: 4559

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

Well. I’m back but once again nothing much has happened during my absence. The Daily Index levels now to keep an eye on are the 220 level on the up side and the 170 level on the down side. I expect that the Index may stay within those levels for some time but who knows, anything can happen and it seems that anything is happening too often. Without further delay let’s go through the normal routine.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed higher on Friday by 0.65 points or 0.33%. There were 20 winners, 21 losers and 9 stocks bumming around. Cameco gained 1.4%, Denison gained 0.9%, Extract gained 0.5%, Paladin gained 1.9% and Uranium One lost 1.0%. The best daily winner was JNR Resources with a gain of 8.3% while the worst loser was Ucore Uranium with a loss of 5.6%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF gained 0.1% while Global X Uranium ETF gained 0.5%.

For the full week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed lower by 414.61 points or 5.62% (the Daily closed with a weekly loss of 3.45%). It looks like the smaller more speculative stocks took the hit again this past week. Although not at its lowest level after the plunge the Daily Index (as week as the Weekly Index) closed at a new week. There were 8 weekly winners, 42 weekly losers and no stock bumming around on the week. Cameco lost 4.6%, Denison lost 4.2%, Extract lost 5.6%, Paladin lost 0.5% and Uranium One lost 2.5%. The best weekly winner was Mawson with a weekly gain of 23.4% while the loser of the week was Vena Resources with a loss of 18.2%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 2.2% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 3.8%.

Nothing much has changed on the long term. Both Indices are below their negative sloping moving average lines. Both momentum indicators are in their negative zones below negative sloping trigger lines. The volume indicator is in a well defined down trend and below its negative trigger line. The long term rating remains BEARISH.

On the intermediate term things are much the same although getting closer to some sort of change. For now the Daily Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line. The momentum indicator remains in its negative zone and is once more below its negative trigger line (it was above the line last week). The volume indicator remains below its negative trigger line but only barely so. Still, all in all the rating remains BEARISH.

On the short term things are very close to changing. The Daily Index still remains below its negative sloping moving average line but is very close to moving above the line. The momentum indicator has been moving in a lateral path for about 4 weeks now. Unlike the Index which is moving sideways with a negative bias the momentum indicator has a positive bias (some hope for upside action here). As for the daily volume action, it remains pathetic. It consistently stays below its 15 day average volume even as the average continually moves lower. For now the short term rating remains BEARISH but that could change very quickly. The very short term moving average line confirms the bear by remaining below the short term average.

As for the immediate direction of least resistance, I’m going with the lateral direction although I just have this feeling that the up side is coming in to play very soon.