for week ending 11 March 2011
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 11 Mar 2011
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Daily and Weekly Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
This disaster in Japan may put a further damper on uranium and nuclear power but there are some places, like China, that cannot stop their programs regardless of the danger. Still, the stocks were a little up on the day on Friday although they might not yet have known of the damage being done to the nuclear facilities.
Overall, it was a lousy week for uranium stocks. As the weekly table shows, only one winner on the week and 48 losers. Now THAT’S a win/lose ratio to behold. I think that’s the worst I’ve seen for this group of stocks. It therefore can’t get any worse. I guess we should be getting prepared for some sort of rally but who knows, with the nuclear environment as it is today.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday with a gain of 0.95 points or 0.39%. There were 23 daily winners, 20 losers and 7 stocks hiding from the rubble. Cameco lost 0.5%, Denison gained 2.6%, Extract gained 2.9%, Paladin gained 0.9% and Uranium One gained 0.5%. The best daily winner was U308 Corp. with a gain of 10.2% while the loser of the day was Xemplar Energy with a loss of 7.7%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 0.3% while Global X Uranium ETF gained 0.7%.
For the full week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index lost 1067.85 points or 10.09% while the Daily Index lost only 7.73% on the week. There was only one winner in the whole bunch but there were 48 losers. There was one stock hiding from the rubble. Cameco lost 8.0% on the week, Denison lost 14.2%, Extract gained 6.7%, Paladin lost 4.7% and Uranium One lost 7.6%. The best gainer of the whole bunch was that one winner of the week, Extract, with a gain of 6.7%. The worst loser of the week was Crosshair with a loss of 23.2%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 4.6% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 8.9%.
Well, despite the turmoil, the long term is still holding on but things are getting closer and closer to some down sizing in the indicators, but not quite yet. Both the Weekly and Daily Indices are still above their long term moving average lines and the lines remain in a positive slope. Both Indices long term momentum indicators remain in their positive zone although they are starting to show weakness. They are below their negative sloping trigger lines. The Daily Index volume indicator is moving downward and has crossed below its long term trigger, although the trigger line is still in an upward slope. Still, at this point the long term ratings for both Indices are BULLISH.
The intermediate term is not as lucky as the long term. The Daily Index has moved below the intermediate term moving average line and the line slope has turned negative. The momentum indicator is sitting on top of its neutral line just a hair in its positive zone but well below its negative sloping trigger line. As for the volume indicator, it has crossed below its trigger line and the trigger is pointing downward. The intermediate term rating is now fully BEARISH. This is confirmed by the short term moving average line crossing below the intermediate term line.
On the short term, as one might imagine, everything is negative. The Daily Index is below its negative sloping moving average line. The momentum indicator is in its negative zone below its negative sloping trigger line. It is also in its oversold zone and just might be getting ready to cross back above the oversold line. If so that could signal a rally of some sort. For now, no rally. The daily volume action remains low as one would expect during a downward price move. The short term rating remains BEARISH. The very short term moving average line confirms this rating by remaining below the short term line (where it’s been for weeks now).
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, well I’m afraid that the market just hasn’t fully taken the disaster in Japan into account. The direction should be towards lower levels but from Friday’s action one might expect some more upside. I’m more inclined towards the downside but will cop-out and go with the lateral.