Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Yesterday was a very good day for uranium stocks, unfortunately I was not able to get a post up. Today, the rally seemed to come to a halt, at least temporarily. With the sharp decline last week it will still be some time before we recover that plunge. As good as the last few days have been it is just a minor blib towards a recovery.
There is an old technical concept, when we have a trading gap such as the one developed last week on Monday that gap gets filled. I have never read a time table for such filling of the gap but usually the gap gets filled within the following few weeks. The gap here is so large that I would not expect it to be filled for some time. But I would expect it to be filled. The big uncertainty is the perception by the speculators as to the benefit of speculating in these stocks on the up side. The speculative environment may be such that uranium may be a no-no for some time. We’ll just have to wait and see.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed down today by 2.10 points or 0.99% (yesterday it was up 6.6%). There were 9 winners today, 36 losers and 5 stocks bumming around. Cameco gained 1.4%, Denison lost 1.4%, Extract was just bumming around, Paladin lost 5.1% and Uranium One lost 2.2%. The best winner of the day was Ucore Rare Metals with a gain of 7.3% (it still has some uranium content) while the loser of the day was Pitchstone with a loss of 12.9%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 0.5% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 0.6%. Just for curiosity the S&P/TSX Venture 30 Index that I mentioned in the week-end commentary was up 2.3% today.
The long term momentum has climbed above its neutral line into the positive zone but still below its trigger line. However, the Daily Index is still below its negative moving average line and the volume indicator remains below its long term trigger so the rating remains unchanged from the week-end BEARISH rating.
On the intermediate term everything still remains negative and the rating remains BEARISH.
On the short term we are getting close to a reversal sign but not quite yet. The Daily Index is just below its negative short term moving average line. The momentum indicator remains in its negative zone but has reversed direction and is heading higher. It is above its positive trigger line and above its oversold line. The daily volume action is still quite high but lower than during the few days of recent decline. Putting the indicators together we are still in a BEARISH rating for now.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance I’ll go with the lateral direction. The Stochastic Oscillator is just about to enter its overbought zone and that just might be the place when the rally halts.