After The Close, 10 Mar 2011
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 248.22
High: 250.13
Low: 238.56
Close: 243.26
Volume: 7729
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
We are in a bear market from the short and intermediate term. As for the long term, well we are still in a bull market but with a few more days like today that rating might just become iffy. The 235 level seems to be a support level from previous action. Let’s see how THAT works?
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed down 9.12 points or 3.61%. There were only 2 winners today, 47 losers and one stock holding on for dear life. Cameco lost 2.0%, Denison lost 4.3%, Extract lost 8.7%, Paladin lost 4.9% and Uranium One lost 1.3%. The best daily winner from those two was Ur Energy with a gain of 3.5% while the loser of the day was Xemplar Energy with a loss of 10.3%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 2.9% while the Global X Uranium Index lost 4.5%.
On the intermediate term all indicators are negative except that the momentum indicator, although in free fall, is just a hair above its neutral line but below its negative trigger line. The rating remains BEARISH with the short term moving average now confirming the rating.
On the short term everything is negative. The momentum indicator has entered its oversold zone so one may now be looking towards some sort of relaxation or recovery, but it has not yet started. The short term rating remains BEARISH with the very short term moving average confirming.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, that should be to the down side as everything is still pointing in that direction. The Stochastic Oscillator has entered its oversold zone so here too one can be expecting a rebound but the rebound has not yet entered the picture. Maybe tomorrow will have some more encouraging indicators.
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 248.22
High: 250.13
Low: 238.56
Close: 243.26
Volume: 7729
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
We are in a bear market from the short and intermediate term. As for the long term, well we are still in a bull market but with a few more days like today that rating might just become iffy. The 235 level seems to be a support level from previous action. Let’s see how THAT works?
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed down 9.12 points or 3.61%. There were only 2 winners today, 47 losers and one stock holding on for dear life. Cameco lost 2.0%, Denison lost 4.3%, Extract lost 8.7%, Paladin lost 4.9% and Uranium One lost 1.3%. The best daily winner from those two was Ur Energy with a gain of 3.5% while the loser of the day was Xemplar Energy with a loss of 10.3%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 2.9% while the Global X Uranium Index lost 4.5%.
On the intermediate term all indicators are negative except that the momentum indicator, although in free fall, is just a hair above its neutral line but below its negative trigger line. The rating remains BEARISH with the short term moving average now confirming the rating.
On the short term everything is negative. The momentum indicator has entered its oversold zone so one may now be looking towards some sort of relaxation or recovery, but it has not yet started. The short term rating remains BEARISH with the very short term moving average confirming.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, that should be to the down side as everything is still pointing in that direction. The Stochastic Oscillator has entered its oversold zone so here too one can be expecting a rebound but the rebound has not yet entered the picture. Maybe tomorrow will have some more encouraging indicators.
2 comments:
Hi Merv,
In constructing your uranium index, how are the stocks weighted (if any)?
I m also curious how you handle situation when a stock is removed from the index. Do you recalculate the historical values for varous indicators, ema, rsi, etc, or given the fact that the index has so many othe stocks it it, that is is safe to assume the removal of one or two stocks from the index is negliable on the various indicators?
Thanks,
A couple of good questions.
I have explained several times the construction of the two Indices but I guess I should explain more often as new readers come on the scene and had not viewed the previous explainations.
The Weekly Index is calculated using a very similar method to that used to calculate the DOW Indices. It uses a factor that is recalculated whenever a stock is replaced or undergoes a stock split. In this method the larger priced stocks have a greater impact on the value of the Index than do the smaller priced stocks.
The Daily Index DOES NOT use any kind of weighting but is calculated on the average performance each day of each of the component stocks. As it calculates the percentage change for each stock it does not matter when a replacement occurs. In this method the lower priced stocks have a greater impact on the Index.
The Indices are not recalculated historically based upon the new stocks that may have been introduced. The Indices calculation just continues by adding the daily or weekly change, based upon method used, to the previous value.
I DO NOT use the ema but I do use the wma. The indicators calculate the activity up to the date of the data. Should any data change then the indicator calculation automatically takes that into account the next calculation. The indicators only tell you the condition as of the date of the data used and ARE NOT predictors of the future and should be reviewed each day or week as the time period requires.
Kind of lengthy but I hope this answers your questions.
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