for week ending 18 February 2011
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 18 Feb 2011
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Daily and Weekly Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
The topping activity continues but there seems to be some hesitation on the part of the major speculators to start dumping. This just might be a sign that the topping activity is only minor and natural after a run-up in price. Nothing goes up forever and stocks need to take a rest from time to time. Anyway, no use neglecting the positive even if the negative seems to be in control.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed trading on Friday with a loss of 4.89 points or 1.75%. There were only 9 daily winners, 34 losers and 7 stocks bumming up the works. Cameco lost 2.7%, Denison lost 1.0%, Extract lost 3.8%, Paladin lost 1.6% and Uranium One lost 1.6%. The best daily winner was Pitchstone with a gain of 7.8% while the loser of the day was Ucore Uranium with a loss of 7.0%. Market Vectors Uranium-Nuclear Energy ETF lost 0.5% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 1.8%.
For the full week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index lost 60.94 points or 0.53% while the Daily lost 1.07%. There were 15 weekly winners, 34 losers and only one stock bumming up the works. Cameco lost 0.5%, Denison gained 0.5%, Extract gained 1.2%, Paladin lost 6.0% and Uranium One lost 2.0%. The best weekly winner was Ucore Uranium with a weekly gain of 39.0% while the loser of the week was Macusani Yellowcake with a loss of 12.7%. Market Vectors Uranium-Nuclear Energy ETF lost 0.3% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 1.4%.
Looking at the long term charts posted earlier one can quickly see how far away we are from any turn around from a long term perspective. Both the Weekly and Daily Indices are far above their positive sloping moving average lines. The long term momentum indicators are both in fairly high positive ground although the Daily Index momentum has now dropped below its trigger line and the trigger has turned oh so slightly to the down side. The Daily Index volume indicator remains strong and above its positive trigger line. From all this the long term rating can only remain BULLISH for both Indices.
The intermediate term is starting to give us some minor headaches. The Daily Index is comfortably above its positive moving average line although from past experience the line could be crossed with a week of very negative activity. The momentum indicator has been giving us negative divergence warnings since reaching its top in early Nov. It is noticeably in a downward trend and has crossed below its negative trigger line but still remains in the positive zone. The volume indicator is showing weakness and has crossed below its trigger line. The trigger line has also turned very slightly downward. However, despite the few weakness in the indicators the rating has remained BULLISH. The short term moving average line has turned to the down side but remains above the intermediate term line for confirmation of the intermediate term bull.
The short term is where things change first (usually). The Daily Index has now dropped below its short term moving average line although the line remains very, very slightly positive. One more negative day and the moving average would most likely turn down. The momentum indicator is almost in a plunging mode. It is heading lower fast and is below its negative trigger line although the indicator is still inside its positive zone. As for the daily volume action, that does leave a lot to be desired but the low volume is normal during a reaction period. The short term rating is not quite fully bearish and is at a – NEUTRAL level, one level above a full bear. The very short term moving average line looks like it just might have dropped below the short term line but on very close examination I find that the very short term moving average line is barely a hair above the short term line, but still above. We have lack of a bear confirmation from this. One more day and the crossing should take place.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, I’m going with the down side. Everything seems to suggest weakness so what do I have to lose?