After The Close, 16 Feb 2011
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 283.10
High: 285.54
Low: 277.01
Close: 280.54
Volume: 8114
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
That one day rally seems to have ended and the expected down move continues. It is still not at a danger point and one should watch for the Index to rebound from or react below that support shown on the chart. We’re looking most likely early next week, that is if it gets there. As I have always mentioned, guesses are one thing but I am inclined to follow what the speculators are doing with their capital. Almost by definition I’ll be a day behind as far as the following is concerned. By guessing, I just might be a day or two ahead, but no-one KNOWS what will actually happen the next day or two. Educated guesses are the best one can do. Run like hell away from anyone that tries to tell you what WILL happen ahead.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed today with a decline of 1.68 points or 0.59%. There were 12 winners, 34 losers and 4 stocks in hiding. That ration of winners and losers just doesn’t seem to go with the minor Index loss. A few of the biggies must have had gains which would have shifted the Index value sharply upward. Cameco lost 1.0%, Denison lost 2.1%, Extract gained 4.1%, Paladin lost 2.1% and Uranium One lost 2.6%. The best daily winner was Ucore Uranium with a gain of 24.7% (that help the Index from dropping too far) while the worst loser was Terra Ventures with a loss of 6.4%. Market Vectors Uranium-Nuclear Energy ETF lost 0.6% while Global X Uranium ETF gained 0.1%.
The Daily Index remains quite a distance above its positive sloping moving average line while the intermediate term momentum indicator remains in its positive zone but has not dropped below its negative sloping trigger line. The volume indicator has been moving in a sideways direction. It did not make a new recent high to confirm the Index. For now the intermediate term rating remains BULLISH.
The short term is a little less positive. The Daily Index continues to toy with the short term moving average line but today has closed above the line with the line still remaining positive. The short term momentum indicator is heading lower, is below its negative trigger line and has dropped below its overbought line. Still, the indicator remains in the positive zone. The daily volume activity remains low and below the 15 day average volume. For today the short term rating still remains BULLISH.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, I must go with the down side. That is the best way I know to make the direction tomorrow be to the up side.
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 283.10
High: 285.54
Low: 277.01
Close: 280.54
Volume: 8114
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
That one day rally seems to have ended and the expected down move continues. It is still not at a danger point and one should watch for the Index to rebound from or react below that support shown on the chart. We’re looking most likely early next week, that is if it gets there. As I have always mentioned, guesses are one thing but I am inclined to follow what the speculators are doing with their capital. Almost by definition I’ll be a day behind as far as the following is concerned. By guessing, I just might be a day or two ahead, but no-one KNOWS what will actually happen the next day or two. Educated guesses are the best one can do. Run like hell away from anyone that tries to tell you what WILL happen ahead.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed today with a decline of 1.68 points or 0.59%. There were 12 winners, 34 losers and 4 stocks in hiding. That ration of winners and losers just doesn’t seem to go with the minor Index loss. A few of the biggies must have had gains which would have shifted the Index value sharply upward. Cameco lost 1.0%, Denison lost 2.1%, Extract gained 4.1%, Paladin lost 2.1% and Uranium One lost 2.6%. The best daily winner was Ucore Uranium with a gain of 24.7% (that help the Index from dropping too far) while the worst loser was Terra Ventures with a loss of 6.4%. Market Vectors Uranium-Nuclear Energy ETF lost 0.6% while Global X Uranium ETF gained 0.1%.
The Daily Index remains quite a distance above its positive sloping moving average line while the intermediate term momentum indicator remains in its positive zone but has not dropped below its negative sloping trigger line. The volume indicator has been moving in a sideways direction. It did not make a new recent high to confirm the Index. For now the intermediate term rating remains BULLISH.
The short term is a little less positive. The Daily Index continues to toy with the short term moving average line but today has closed above the line with the line still remaining positive. The short term momentum indicator is heading lower, is below its negative trigger line and has dropped below its overbought line. Still, the indicator remains in the positive zone. The daily volume activity remains low and below the 15 day average volume. For today the short term rating still remains BULLISH.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, I must go with the down side. That is the best way I know to make the direction tomorrow be to the up side.
1 comment:
good advice,Merv. I'm frankly keeping on the lightside (more cash; less stock) until there's a few more upside motions. The price on Monday may trigger up or down and if so, then why risk it today? what we have here is less highs and more lows.
thanks for your column and insight. i find it very interesting.
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