for week ending 21 January 2011
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 21 Jan 2011
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Daily and Weekly Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
It continues to look like a topping action. The Daily Index was down less than 2% for the week while the Weekly Index went nowhere. After a good up trend this kind of action must be looked at with caution. The short and intermediate term momentum indicators continue to move lower while the long term is moving sideways. None are moving higher to suggest internal strengthening in the price action.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday very, very slightly on the up side. It was up 0.003 points or 0.00%. How’s that for a nothing up day? There were 22 winners, 23 losers and 5 stocks hiding from the action. Cameco lost 0.8% on the day, Denison gained 2.7%, Extract lost 0.1%, Paladin lost 5.7% and Uranium One gained 4.2%. The best daily winner was Fission Energy with a gain of 19.3% while the daily loser was NWT Uranium with a loss of 7.0%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF lost 0.1% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 0.3%.
For the week as a whole the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed with a loss of 9.77 points or 0.09% (The Daily Index closed with a weekly loss of 1.88%). There were 21 weekly winners, 27 losers and 2 stocks hiding from the action. Cameco lost 4.4% during the week, Denison gained 2.1%, Extract lost 4.2%, Paladin lost 6.2% and Uranium One gained 4.8%. The best weekly winner was Fission Energy with a gain of 19.3% while the worst loser was Crosshair Exploration with a loss of 13.9%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF lost 0.8% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 1.6%.
The long term is still some distance from any change in it’s rating status. It remains BULLISH and no need to waste any time on it.
The intermediate term is starting to show concern. It has not gone bearish yet but things are heading in that direction. The Daily Index is still above its positive sloping moving average line. The momentum indicator remains in its positive zone but is moving lower and is at its lowest point in the past 3 months. It is also below its negative trigger line. As for the volume indicator, it has been toying with its trigger line lately but remains just above the line, which itself remains in a positive slope. For nor the intermediate term rating remains BULLISH. This is confirmed by the short term moving average line remaining above the intermediate term line.
The short term is not quite so lucky. The Daily Index has moved below its short term moving average line and the line slope is now to the down side. The momentum indicator has been moving lower but came to a halt on Friday just a hair above its neutral line, but still in the positive zone. It is, however, below its negative trigger line. As for the daily volume action, that still remains stilted despite the tremendous zoom in the Index on Friday. Putting it all together we must remain BEARISH on the short term. This is not yet confirmed by the very short term moving average line, which remains above the short term line.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, I’m going with the lateral direction although the Stochastic Oscillator suggests that there still may be a day or two of downside action before it enters the oversold zone.