for week ending 17 December 2010
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 17 Dec 2010
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Daily and Weekly Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
As far as the week is concerned, nothing much has happened. The Daily Index was ahead by a minor amount while the Weekly Index was behind by a minor amount. The biggies were holding their own while the more speculative stocks seemed to have run up against a wall of worry, for now.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday up 2.79 points or 1.15%. There were 29 winners, 18 losers and 3 stocks bumming around. Cameco gained 2.7%, Denison gained 1.3%, Extract lost 1.1%, Paladin lost 1.2% and Uranium One gained 1.4%. The best daily winner was Titan Uranium with a gain of 15.4% while the loser of the day was Uranerz Energy with a minor loss of 4.1%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF gained 0.6% while the Global X Uranium ETF gained 0.5%.
As for the week as a whole the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed lower by 41.88 points or 0.46% (the Daily closed on the week up 0.67%). There were 23 weekly winners, 27 weekly losers and no stock bumming around. Cameco gained 3.3%, Denison lost 4.1%, Extract lost 0.1%, Paladin lost 3.0% and Uranium One lost 10.3%. The best weekly winner was Fronteer with a gain of 12.6% while the loser of the week was Powertech with a loss of 14.3%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF gained 0.3% while the Global X Uranium ETF lost 1.1%.
From the long term standpoint nothing much has changed from last week. Both Indices are well above their positive long term moving average lines. Both momentum indicators are in their positive zones. The Daily Index volume indicator remains above its positive trigger line. Putting it all together the only rating on the long term is a BULLISH rating.
On the intermediate term all is still positive. The Daily Index remains above its positive moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its positive zone. The indicator has shown a negative divergence and is moving lower below its negative trigger line so weakness is being shown. The volume indicator remains above its positive trigger line although it is moving in more of a sideways direction. Still, the intermediate term remains BULLISH. The short term moving average line confirms the bull by remaining above the intermediate term line.
On the short term things are somewhat different. The Daily Index has been tracing a basic lateral path and is trapped inside a lateral box. This causes the Index to oscillate above and below its moving average line with the line slope changing along with the moves. On Friday the Index closed above the moving average line and the line has turned upward. As for the momentum indicator, as mentioned some days ago, a sideways motion of the Index causes the momentum indicator to continue a move towards its neutral line. This is what’s happening making the indicator look weak, which it is but it may only be due to the lateral Index motion. As for the daily volume action, that continues to be low, as one would expect when nothing much is happening to the Index. All in all, today the short term rating is BULLISH. More important is the box and the Index being trapped inside. Wait for the break out of the box to know which direction the stocks are moving next.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, I’ll go with the lateral until some clearer indication of which direction the Index wants to go.
I will be taking a Christmas break so posting for the next few weeks will be limited.
Wishing all a very Merry Christmas and a profitable New Year.