for week ending 19 November 2010
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 19 Nov 2010
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Daily and Weekly Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
This past week the Merv’s Uranium Index (both Daily and Weekly have the same component stocks) underwent a minor revision. Four stocks were deleted and four added. I may still make a further update over the next week but I’m not yet sure. In addition to the update a review of the largest stocks was made. I have removed Fronteer from my daily quote of the top 5 largest stocks even though it is number three as far as market value is concerned. It does not have a large uranium component to justify being in the top 5. Denison Mines is back in the list although Uranium Participation is very close behind and depending upon the stock performances may overtake Denison by time of the next review (although Denison looks like its performance may be better). Friday’s Index value and the week-end charts and tables reflect the updated stocks.
The Daily Index seems to have found a support at just above the 200 mark. The last three days of the week were up days but it does look like the strength of the bounce is starting to peter out. I’m afraid that this coming week may not be a good week but the markets do what they have to do to confuse most of the market players most of the time. So, it’s a wait and see. In any case it is not a market where one would be jumping in on the buy side with confidence.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday on the up side, up 1.50 points or 0.69%. Once again it looks like a hanging man candlestick day which is a bearish sign. There were 22 winners on the day, 17 losers and 11 stocks sleeping it off. Cameco gained 0.8%, Denison gained 0.8%, Extract lost o.6%, Paladin gained 0.6% and Uranium One lost 2.3%. The best daily winner was U308 Corp. (one of the new stocks) with a gain of 26.8% while the daily loser was Crosshair with a loss of 6.9%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF gained 0.6%.
For the week as a whole the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed up 9.74 points or 0.12% (the Daily had a weekly loss of 0.43%). There were 15 weekly winners, 32 losers and 3 stocks sleeping it off. Cameco lost 0.7% on the week, Denison lost 2.6%, Extract lost 7.8%, Paladin lost 0.6% and Uranium One lost 0.2%. The best weekly winner was Mawson (another new stock) with a weekly gain of 48.6% while the weekly loser was Rockgate Capital with a weekly loss of 14.3%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF lost 0.1% on the week.
Despite the somewhat slow week nothing much has changed in the two Indices from their long term standpoint. Both the Daily and Weekly are well above their respective positive moving average lines. Their long term momentum indicators are in their positive zones with the Daily Index once more above its positive trigger line (it was below the trigger for a few days). The Daily volume indicator continues to move in a sideways manner but still well above its positive trigger line. Both the Daily and Weekly Indices are BULLISH for the long term.
On the intermediate term nothing much has changed over the past few days. The Daily Index remains above its positive moving average line. The momentum indicator remains in its positive zone although it is below its trigger line and the trigger is sloping downward. The volume indicator remains positive (although maybe I should call it neutral) and is above its positive trigger line. For the intermediate term the rating remains BULLISH but showing some initial signs of weakness. The short term moving average line remains above the intermediate term line for confirmation of the bull.
On the short term it was getting serious there for a few days. The Daily Index is once more above its positive moving average line (it was below the line earlier) and the momentum indicator remains inside its positive zone. The momentum indicator is, however, very slightly below its negative sloping trigger line. The daily volume action is very low relative to recent action and not a good sign since it has been low during the recent few days bounce. The short term rating is once more very slightly into the BULLISH rating but this could change with one bad day. The very short term moving average line is sitting right on top of the short term line but it's still a confirmation of the bull, but barely.
The immediate direction of least resistance continues to be lateral for now.