BASIC NOTES

Uranium Companies

There are very few pure uranium companies. Most companies, especially the small exploration type, are active in more than the uranium industry. This blog makes no attempt to guage the percentage of a companies activity that are related to the finding, mining or processing of uraniun. They all do, however, have some uranium activities (to the best of our review).

Merv's Uranium Indices

I have developed two Uranium Indices. They each have the same component stocks but are calculated using different methodologies. My weekly Index is based upon the average weekly performance of the component stocks. My daily Index is based upon the daily average of the component stocks open, high, low and close prices along with the daily average volume of all component stocks.

Click on the chart or table to enlage the view.



10 November 2010

Merv's Daily Commentary 10 Nov 2010


After The Close, 10 Nov 2010

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data

Open: 222.96
High: 228.28
Low: 215.14
Close: 224.78
Volume: 14311


Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

It’s getting closer to that blow-off reversal stage, but not yet. Tomorrow a close below 220 would do it. If not tomorrow then each day after, the break-down point increases. One should understand that when a stock or Index is in one of these blow-off stages it could continue zooming higher for no particular reason and much higher than one could imagine. The uranium price has been on a tear upwards over the past week or two and that may propel stock prices much, much higher. BUT all good moves come to an end so we’re watching.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed higher today by 2.88 points or 1.30%. There were 31 winners, 14 losers and 5 stocks totally confused. Cameco lost 2.0%. Extract gained 4.6%, Fronteer gained 1.7%, Paladin lost 0.6% and Uranium One lost 1.4%. The best daily winner was First Uranium with a gain of 24.7% while the worst daily loser was Khan Resources with a loss of 10.7%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF gained 0.5%.

The long term rarely changes and remains the same as during the last week-end analysis, i.e. BULLISH.

The intermediate term is still all positive but there are some minor warning signs showing up. The Daily Index is still well above its positive sloping moving average line and no real danger here yet. The momentum indicator is also way up there in its positive zone above its positive trigger line. However, it is also in its overbought zone from where it is very likely to start a reversal. It has started lower but as yet still remains in the overbought zone. It might take another day or two for it to drop below its overbought line for a trend reversal sign. As for the volume indicator, that remains very positive and above its positive trigger line. For now the intermediate term remains BULLISH. The short term moving average line continues to confirm this bull.

On the short term the warnings are becoming more emphatic but still not an immediate reversal sign. The FAN PRINCPLE blow-off has been mentioned earlier. The Daily Index remains above its positive sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains deep in its positive zone above its positive trigger line. It is well inside its overbought zone and a reversal is expected BUT when we are into a very strong trend this overbought phase could last for some time. It has already lasted over 4 weeks but at some point it will drop decisively below its overbought line for a trend reversal. For now the short term rating remains BULLISH with the very short term moving average line confirming.

As for the immediate direction of least resistance, I’m not even going to venture a guess with this market. It is just too volatile. However, I expect that it just might move sideways for a few days.

I screwed up last night and didn’t get the comments to your comments up. They need a response as do today’s comments. I will have some comments posted later in the evening ---- for sure.

3 comments:

Mark said...

Hey Merv!

What do you make of the URZ chart?
Great run up and just pooped the bed the last 2 sessions....where do you see support/resistance?

All insights appreciated, Thanks!

Anonymous said...

Merv, great responses to your 11/9 commentary. Nice havin some juicy back in the game!

Anyway in addressing your comments regarding the spot price relative to performance I thought it was interesting that you could certainly select early July as the spot bottom at about $42 (it appears, not great uxc charts) to Monday closing of $58.50, so thats about 40%.

Same time period the the daily index moves up about 65%. I have always anticipated 2 to 3x the spot move so 80-120%. My portfolio up 80% since july bottom.

Anyway I don't know how much that matters, or if the dollar weakness should really impact spot, maybe its just a conincidence.

I am curious as to what it would mean should the spot cross over on the term contract which is sitting at $62 I believe.

Have you ever done charts of either index with a spot price overlay?

That might be interesting. It seemed that the index waited to "see" the move in spot, without anticipation this time.

Merv said...

First, see chart and very brief comment on URZ on the front.

As for performance of uranium stocks since July bottom, the AVERAGE price of a uranium stock (the 50 Index components) since the July bottom has been 92% to the Friday close. This is the performance of the Weekly Index.