Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
It’s getting closer to that blow-off reversal stage, but not yet. Tomorrow a close below 220 would do it. If not tomorrow then each day after, the break-down point increases. One should understand that when a stock or Index is in one of these blow-off stages it could continue zooming higher for no particular reason and much higher than one could imagine. The uranium price has been on a tear upwards over the past week or two and that may propel stock prices much, much higher. BUT all good moves come to an end so we’re watching.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed higher today by 2.88 points or 1.30%. There were 31 winners, 14 losers and 5 stocks totally confused. Cameco lost 2.0%. Extract gained 4.6%, Fronteer gained 1.7%, Paladin lost 0.6% and Uranium One lost 1.4%. The best daily winner was First Uranium with a gain of 24.7% while the worst daily loser was Khan Resources with a loss of 10.7%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF gained 0.5%.
The long term rarely changes and remains the same as during the last week-end analysis, i.e. BULLISH.
The intermediate term is still all positive but there are some minor warning signs showing up. The Daily Index is still well above its positive sloping moving average line and no real danger here yet. The momentum indicator is also way up there in its positive zone above its positive trigger line. However, it is also in its overbought zone from where it is very likely to start a reversal. It has started lower but as yet still remains in the overbought zone. It might take another day or two for it to drop below its overbought line for a trend reversal sign. As for the volume indicator, that remains very positive and above its positive trigger line. For now the intermediate term remains BULLISH. The short term moving average line continues to confirm this bull.
On the short term the warnings are becoming more emphatic but still not an immediate reversal sign. The FAN PRINCPLE blow-off has been mentioned earlier. The Daily Index remains above its positive sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains deep in its positive zone above its positive trigger line. It is well inside its overbought zone and a reversal is expected BUT when we are into a very strong trend this overbought phase could last for some time. It has already lasted over 4 weeks but at some point it will drop decisively below its overbought line for a trend reversal. For now the short term rating remains BULLISH with the very short term moving average line confirming.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, I’m not even going to venture a guess with this market. It is just too volatile. However, I expect that it just might move sideways for a few days.
I screwed up last night and didn’t get the comments to your comments up. They need a response as do today’s comments. I will have some comments posted later in the evening ---- for sure.