for week ending 08 October 2010
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 08 Oct 2010
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Daily and Weekly Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
Well, I guess that’s it for another week. The Weekly Index was very slightly lower while the Daily Index was slightly higher for the week. Nothing dramatic occurred during the week and in the end it looked more like a lateral week than anything else. The Daily Index continues on its merry way within that upo trending channel, in fact it has remained within the slightly reduced channel with the dashed upper resistance line. In the past there has been a lot of activity around this level so that the Index may have some more slugging to do to get through this area. I would think that it’s a tough going until the Daily Index makes it to the 200 level, after which we might expect more easier going.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday up 3.52 points or 2.02%. On the week this Index was up 1.49%. There were 30 daily winners, 14 losers and 6 totally lost. Cameco gained 3.3%, Extract gained 1.0%, Fronteer lost 0.5%, Paladin gained 0.6% and Uranium One gained 2.0%. The best winner of the day was Quest Rare Metals with a gain of 20.0% while the loser of the day was Xemplar Energy with a loss of 7.4%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF gained 1.3%.
For the week as a whole the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed with a weekly loss of 44.88 points or 0.78%. There were 18 weekly winners, 26 losers and 6 totally lost. Cameco gained 5.9% on the week, Extract lost 0.6%, Fronteer gained 0.8%, Paladin lost 0.5% and Uranium One gained 3.7%. The best weekly winner was Kivalliq Energy with a weekly gain of 25.0% while the loser of the week was Blue Sky Uranium with a weekly loss of 21.4%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF gained 2.0% on the week.
Despite the fact that the Daily and Weekly Indices went in different directions this past week both are still giving the same message from the long term perspective. Both Indices are above their positive sloping moving average lines and both Indices long term momentum indicators are in their positive zones above their positive trigger lines. The volume indicator continues to move higher and remains above its positive sloping trigger line. All is still well and both Indices are BULLISH from the long term perspective.
From an intermediate term perspective all is still well here also. The Daily Index remains above its positive sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its positive zone above its positive trigger line. The volume indicator is also above its positive trigger line. The intermediate term perspective is therefore still BULLISH with the short term moving average line confirming this rating by remaining above the intermediate term line.
On the short term most of the week the Daily Index moved sideways and we never were sure if it was not going to turn down and take the short term moving average with it. In the end Friday was a good day and all is safe, for a day or two. The Index is above its positive sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator is in its positive zone. It has moved back into its overbought zone and above its positive sloping trigger line. The next move below the overbought line should put us into a down period. For now everything is still A-OKAY. The daily volume activity is still a mystery. I keep looking for the volume to really perk up but it only perks up so far and then cools off. During the week the daily volume consistently stayed below its average 15 day volume. Anyway, for the short term the rating remains BULLISH. The very short term moving average line confirms the rating.
As far as the immediate direction of least resistance, that seems to be to the up side with the Stochastic Oscillator once more turning upward and inside its positive zone. Unfortunately, I really don’t see much of an upside ahead and it’s time for the Index to take a rest, consolidate its gains and get going again with more vigor. I am sticking with the lateral direction for now.
The Canadian markets are closed on Monday for the Canadian Thanksgiving day. We get winters a lot earlier than in the U.S. so we get Thanksgiving a month earlier than they do. There will therefore be no daily update on Monday. The wife is a great cook and I’m sure I’ll be fully stuffed with turkey, fantastic stuffing, good wine and topped off with some good cognac. Who can think commentary after all that?