Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Well, I got the Indices and Table posted but didn’t quite make the commentary post. Things just got out of hand here and deadlines fell by the board.
What we see in the Index today is just an extension of what we would have seen on the week-end. The Index is going through a topping process. The Stochastic Oscillator was already well on its way and the short term momentum indicator made its move today by dropping below its overbought line. The momentum indicator is sitting right on top of its up trend line and any further downside move would see it break below. That would be another indication of a reversal in progress. The intermediate term momentum indicator is giving us the very same message. Still, the indicators are in positive zones so any downside move is not yet predicted to be of any major significance.
Last week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed higher by 313.11 points or 5.79%. The Daily Index closed higher with a weekly gain of less than half that, at 2.47%. It was the low priced stocks continuing their moves. There were 33 weekly winners, 15 losers and 2 sleepers. Cameco gained 1.2% on the week, Extract lost 0.8%, Fronteer gained 3.3%, Paladin gained 0.3% and Uranium One gained 7.7%. The best weekly winner was Forum Uranium with a weekly gain of 43.8% while the loser of the week was Benton with a loss of 13.9%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF gained 1.2% on the week.
On Monday the Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower by 2.33 points or 1.33%. There were 12 winners, 30 losers and 8 sleepers. Cameco lost 1.0%, Extract was sleeping, Fronteer lost 3.7%, Paladin lost 3.8% and Uranium One gained 0.6%. The best daily performer was Wealth Minerals with a daily gain of 17.5% while the worst performer was Uranium Resources with a loss of 9.5%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF lost 1.9%.
I wouldn’t go into any details on the long term. Looking at the Indices charts posted during the week-end one can easily see that everything was positive and therefore both the Daily and Weekly Indices long term ratings remain BULLISH. The one item of note has been mentioned above, i.e. the difference in the weekly performance of these two Indices showing the low priced stocks as moving a lot more than the larger priced stocks. This has been noted in thev past and should be no big surprise.
I’ll also cut short the intermediate term details for the same reason as for the long term. Everything remains positive. The only caution is the momentum indicator. It has turned lower and has crossed below its trigger line although the trigger is still in a positive slope. So, the intermediate term rating remains BULLISH.
On the short term the Daily Index is still above its positive sloping moving average line. The momentum indicator is still in its positive zone although it has dropped below its overbought line and below its now negative sloping trigger line. It is right on top of its up trend line, in fact a very close look would suggest that it has just inched below the line. The daily volume activity had been improving just as the Index was at its top (not an unusual situation) and is not diminishing in value. All in all the short term rating remains BULLISH but very close to being down graded. The very short term moving average line remains above the short term line for confirmation.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, I’ll go with the down side for tomorrow. The Stochastic Oscillator is dropping like a rock and just about to enter its negative zone. The Index has closed below its very short term moving average line although the line is still sloping upwards.