for week ending 20 August 2010
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 20 Aug 2010
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Daily and Weekly Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
The Daily Index tried to rally off its intermediate term moving average line this week but in the end couldn’t really get a move going. Maybe it’s because it came up against the long term moving average line and crashed. The daily volume action is still pretty low so the speculators (those who can move prices) are playing a waiting game. The Daily Index is also butting up against a long term resistance level going back more than a year. That 160 level had been a support for a year and once the Index broke below it the support became a resistance. Other than that there is nothing one can pick up on the charts other than the usual indicator analysis.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday with a gain of 0.07 points or 0.04%. Whoopee! That should really get things going. There were 16 winners, 24 losers and 10 problem children. From the winners and losers it looks like more of a down day. Cameco lost 0.0%, Extract lost 1.9%, Fronteer gained 2.4%, Paladin lost 1.1% and Uranium One gained 2.6%. The best winner of the day was Khan Resources with a gain of 14.0% while the loser of the day was Xemplar Energy with a loss of 10.0%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF lost 1.1% on the day.
For the full week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index gained 23.38 points or 0.50%. Another Whoopee. The Daily Index gained 2.4% during the week so most of the action, what there was of it, was in the larger priced stocks. The pennies were generally doing nothing during the week. There were 26 weekly winners, 21 weekly losers and only 3 problem children. Cameco gained 3.2%, Extract lost 2.3%, Fronteer gained 17.4%, Paladin lost 0.8% and Uranium One gained 11.1%. The best weekly winner was Quaterra with a gain of 18.5% while the weekly loser was Uracan with a weekly loss of 16.1%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF gained 0.5% on the week.
The long term indicators remain as they have been for the past few months. Both the Daily and Weekly Indices continue trading below their negative sloping moving average lines. The long term momentum indicators for both Indices remain in their negative zone but slightly above their still slightly positive trigger lines. The Daily Index volume indicator still looks like it is more in a lateral drift but remains just slightly above its positive trigger line. At this time both Indices remain BEARISH for the long term.
The intermediate term is also somewhat easy to analyze. The Daily Index remains above its positive sloping moving average line. The momentum indicator remains in its positive zone (but just barely) and is sitting on top of its still positive trigger line. The volume indicator had been bouncing off its trigger line but remains above it and the trigger slope remains positive. On the intermediate term all is BULLISH. The short term moving average line remains above the intermediate term line for confirmation of the bull.
The Daily Index closed above its short term moving average line on Tuesday and although every day the Daily low has been below the moving average line the closing price continued to close above the line. So it was on Friday, but barely so. The moving average itself has been moving higher but on Friday seemed to go more towards the horizontal than an upward slope. The momentum indicator remains in its positive zone and is sitting right on top of its slightly positive trigger line. The daily volume action still leaves a lot to be desired and more upside action is really, really needed. For now the short term rating remains BULLISH, confirmed by the very short term moving average line still slightly above the short term line.
As for the direction of least resistance, I’m going with the lateral. The immediate trend seems to be neutral and the Stochastic Oscillator seems to be in the process of turning to the down side but not quite there yet.