for week ending 09 July 2010
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 09 Jul 2010
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Daily and Weekly Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
An interesting week. For the week the Daily Index was up (quality) while the Weekly Index was down (speculative). Since the quality stocks are the ones that normally lead the market turning around to the up side this is a good thing. So far it hasn’t made a dint in the ratings but it’s a start.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday on the up side by 1.69 points or 1.18%. There were 24 winners, 11 losers and 15 that were totally lost. Cameco was one of those lost, Extract gained 1.7%, Fronteer gained 6.5%, Paladin gained 2.2% and Uranium One lost 2.1%. The best winner of the day was Crosshair Exploration with a gain of 16.7% while the loser of the day was Wealth Minerals with a loss of 11.8%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF gained 1.3%.
For the week as a whole the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed lower by 27.94 points or 0.71%. By comparison the Daily Index closed the week with a weekly gain of 3.07%. There were 23 weekly winners, 23 weekly losers and 4 totally lost. Cameco gained 5.6% on the week, Extract gained 1.7%, Fronteer gained 6.8%, Paladin gained 8.1% and Uranium One gained 1.8%. The best weekly winner was Crosshair Exploration with a weekly gain of 27.3% while the loser of the week was Forsys metals with a loss of 32.3%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF gained 5.4% on the week.
Although the stocks may be starting a turn around the action to date has not affected the long term charts or indicators. The Both the Weekly and the Daily Indices are below their respective negative sloping long term moving average lines. Both long term momentum indicators are still well inside their negative zones although the Daily Index momentum is perking up and has crossed above its still negative trigger line. The volume indicator continues to be negative and below its negative trigger line. The long term ratings for both Indices is BEARISH.
For the intermediate term the indicators are tightening up but at Friday’s close still nothing has been affected. The Daily Index remains below its negative moving average line. The momentum indicator remains in its negative zone. It is moving upwards and has crossed above its now positive trigger line. Unfortunately, that is not enough to affect the rating yet. The volume indicator is closing in on its trigger line but remains slightly below it. For the intermediate term I must remain BEARISH but understand that things are heading towards the improving side. The short term moving average line remains some distance below the intermediate term line for confirmation of the bear.
On the short term this is where we watch very closely. The Daily Index has closed above the short term moving average line but the line is still in a slight negative slope. The momentum indicator continues to move upwards and is getting very close to its neutral line but is still in its negative zone. It is above its positive trigger line. The daily volume activity is still low and not telling us anything. On the short term the rating is improved to a + NEUTRAL rating, just one step below a full bull. The very short term moving average line is moving upwards and very close to crossing above the short term moving average line but still below, confirming the lack of a full bull rating.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, I’m going with the flow. The Daily Index is above its very short term moving average line and the line is in an upward trend. The Stochastic Oscillator is moving higher sharply, to sharp for my taste but I’ll take it. The SO has just entered into its overbought zone so we might start to expect some upside movement hesitation, if not a reversal. However, the SO is only very slightly inside the overbought zone and there is still room for more Index upside. I’ll go with the up side for another day.