for week ending 14 May 2010
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 14 May 2010
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Daily and Weekly Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
Well the week started on the right foot but didn’t end there. Is that the end of the rally? It was disappointing that the rally only lasted three days but I’m sure there is more upside ahead – somewhere.
The Index is bouncing off a year long support but I sure would have wanted to see a more robust bounce. The weakness of the bounce, so far, is not that encouraging, neither was the volume. Speculators still seem to be holding back for some reason. The price of uranium is not giving them any encouragement to get back into the game again. Other than bouncing off support there is nothing of pattern wise in the charts that one can grab on to so let’s get right to the normal analysis.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower on Friday by 1.67 points or 1.03%. There were 12 daily winners, 33 losers and 5 stocks not participating. Cameco lost 0.4%, Extract wasn’t participating (at least not in Canada), Paladin lost 1.6%, Uranium One lost 2.1% and USEC lost 1.1%. The best daily winner was UEX Corp. with a gain of 13.3% while the worst daily loser was Xemplar Energy with a loss of 8.3%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF lost 1.5%.
On the week as a whole the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed higher by 69.90 points or 1.47%. There were 29 weekly winners, 18 losers and 3 stocks not participating. Cameco gained 5.3%, Extract gained 7.5%, Paladin gained 11.6%, Uranium One lost 6.1% and USEC gained 5.9%. The best weekly winner was UEX Corp with a gain of 30.8% while the loser of the week was JNR Resources with a loss of 15.2%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF gained 3.3%.
Both the Daily and Weekly Indices continue to be in sync on the long term. Too bad it’s on the down side. Both Indices are below their negative moving average lines. Both have their long term momentum indicators in the negative zone and below their negative trigger lines. The plunge a week ago, on heavier than normal volume, has put the volume indicator in negative territory and remains below its negative trigger line. For both Indices the long term rating remains BEARISH.
The Daily Index remains below its negative sloping intermediate term moving average line. The momentum indicator remains in its negative zone but above its slightly positive trigger line. The volume indicator continues below its negative trigger line. For the intermediate term the rating remains BEARISH.
The Daily Index was above its short term moving average line for two days this past week but is back below the line on the Friday close. Throughout it all the line slope remained negative. The daily volume action continues either higher on down days or low otherwise. On the short term the rating is still BEARISH with the very short term moving average line confirming that rating by remaining below the short term line.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, I’ll stick with the lateral direction. The latest direction of the Index is towards the down side and both the short term momentum and Stochastic Oscillator seem to be turning towards the down side. However, I’ll keep hoping that there is little downside left for this Index and the lateral may be the direction of choice.