for week ending 02 March 2010
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Thursday 01 Apr 2010
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Daily and Weekly Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
A very small drop in the price of uranium this week must have muddied up the thinking of speculators. Is uranium going higher or lower? And why should it matter? As a technician it does not matter. However, most “investors”, those who can move prices, do look at things line uranium price and a host of other things to make their investment decisions. It’s those decisions that technicians look to and determine which way the wind is blowing. We’re still within a major lateral move but things are once more looking interesting. Thursday’s close is the second highest closing price since the 25th of Jan, over two months ago. We are within striking distance of breaking through that upper resistance and on into a new bull move.
The markets were closed on Friday so the daily data is for Thursday. The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed higher by 2.07 points or 1.19%. There were 37 winners (way to go gang), 7 losers and 6 stocks wanting privacy. Cameco lost 3.3%, First Uranium was on a privacy kick, Paladin gained 5.4%, Uranium One gained 3.7% and Uranium Participation gained 1.7%. The best winner on Thursday was Purepoint Uranium with a gain of 9.1% while the worst loser was Cameco with that loss of 3.3%. One would not have expected Cameco to be on the worst daily performer list but on the other hand it was only 3.3%. Must have been a pretty good day if the worst that happened was a 3.3% decline. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF gained 2.7%.
For the full week (minus Friday of course) the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed higher on the week by 185.94 points or 3.50%. There were 33 weekly winners, 9 losers and 8 seeking privacy. Cameco lost 1.8%, First Uranium gained 2.3%, Paladin gained 8.7%, Uranium One gained 5.3% and Uranium Participation gained 2.2%. The best weekly winner was Continental Precious Minerals with a gain of 16.7% while the worst weekly loser was Pele Mountain Resources with a loss of 10.3%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF gained 4.6%.
Once more the long term indicators using the Daily and Weekly Indices are diverging, well maybe not diverging but not moving in sync. Looking at the Weekly Index the Index closed the week still below its long term moving average line and the line remains in a negative slope. The momentum indicator, however, has just moved above its neutral line into the positive zone. It can be seen as being above its trigger line. The Weekly Index rating is upgraded slightly to a – NEUTRAL rating.
Looking at the Daily Index the Index has moved above its long term moving average line and the line slope has just turned slightly upwards. The momentum indicator, however, remains below its neutral line in the negative zone but is heading upward and is above its positive sloping trigger line. The volume indicator continues to track a basic lateral path but remains slightly below its negative trigger line. The Daily Index long term rating is upgraded to a + NEUTRAL rating.
On the intermediate term the Daily Index has moved above its moving average line and the line has just oh so gently turned upward. The momentum indicator has just peaked its head inside its positive zone and is above its positive trigger line. The volume indicator has moved above its positive sloping trigger line. On the intermediate term the rating has been upgraded to a full BULLISH rating. The short term moving average line is still slightly below the intermediate term line and has not quite confirmed this bull. One more day will do it.
On the short term everything is looking rosy. The Daily Index closed above its positive sloping moving average line. The momentum indicator closed inside its positive zone above its positive trigger line. Even the daily volume action looks like it is ready to perk up. All in all the short term rating is BULLISH. The very short term moving average line is also above the short term line for confirmation of this bull.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, that’s difficult. Everything seems to say the upside is where it’s at but there are a couple of very subtle hints that maybe we’re back to the lateral path for a day or so. The Stochastic Oscillator is in its positive zone and still some distance from the overbought level but it does look like it is leveling off and just might be in the process of turning back to the down side. This just might put a short damper on the Index. It looks like the Index is into higher levels but might have a day or two of hesitation so I’ll go with the latyeral trend for Monday and maybe even Tuesday.