Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 26 February 2010
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 26 Feb 2010
Open: 171.89
Hugh: 173.89
Low: 168.72
Close: 170.90
Volume: 5005
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Daily and Weekly Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
The Daily Index just hit the 177 resistance level on Monday and turned back to the down side. One would be logical to look at the activity since the start of the year and say we have a bullish reverse head and shoulder formed. It is just a tad short of my definition of a head and shoulder (or reverse H&S) pattern. I like to see the total points from the start of the move on the left to the R H&S neckline to be at least equal to the total points from the neckline to the bottom of the head. In this pattern the points to the neckline is just a little less than the number of points from the neckline to the head bottom. BUT it does LOOK like a reverse H&S so I wouldn’t quibble. However, should the move break above the neckline we should keep in mind that this is a short term pattern and the projection for such a move, based upon the H&S technique, would only be back to the previous high and not into a “box” break-out, which is what we are looking for.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday down 0.88 points or 0.51%. There were 21 winners, 20 losers and 9 spinning their wheels. Cameco lost 1.8%, First Uranium lost 15.5%, Paladin lost 4.0%, Uranium One was just spinning its wheels and Uranium Participation lost 0.5%. The best winner of the day was Terra Ventures with a gain of 10.0% while the worst loser was First Uranium with a loss of 15.5%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF was up 0.5%.
For the week as a whole the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index was down 44.81 points or 0.79%. There were 14 weekly winners, 32 weekly losers and 4 spinning their weekly. Cameco lost 4.8% on the week, First Uranium gained 24.4% on the week (despite the 15.5% loss on Friday), Paladin lost 9.2%, Uranium One lost 1.3% and Uranium Participation gained 0.8%. The best winner of the week was First Uranium with that 24.4% gain while the loser of the week was Mawson with a loss of 10.0%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF lost 0.6% on the week.
The long term indicators continue to tell us a different story using the Weekly or the Daily Index. The weekly Index remains just above a positive long term moving average while the momentum indicator remains in its positive zone. The long term rating for the Weekly Index remains BULLISH.
The Daily Index remains below its negative long term moving average line. The momentum indicator remains in its negative zone. The volume indicator continues to move sideways and remains below its long term negative trigger line. The Daily Index rating remains BEARISH.
On the intermediate term the Daily Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line. The momentum indicator remains in its negative zone and has once more dropped below its trigger line. The trigger, however, is still slightly positive. The volume indicator is moving sideways but is sitting right on top of its still negative trigger line. All in all the intermediate term rating remains BEARISH. This is confirmed by the short term moving average line remaining below the intermediate term line.
On the short term things were looking brighter last week but degenerated this week. The Daily Index closed on Friday just below its moving average line although the line itself is still in an upward trend. The momentum indicator is once more in its negative zone below its negative trigger line. The daily volume activity has perked up a little these past two days but one day was up and the other down so the perk-up is questionable right now. In any case the short term rating is back to a BEARISH rating.
To try and guess the immediate direction of least resistance today is a little bit iffy but I will go with the up side, although maybe I should go with my popular lateral trend. There is nothing that jumps out at me when looking at the indicators to go strongly one way or the other. The up side just gives me more pleasure hoping it will come true.
for week ending 26 February 2010
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 26 Feb 2010
Open: 171.89
Hugh: 173.89
Low: 168.72
Close: 170.90
Volume: 5005
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Daily and Weekly Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
The Daily Index just hit the 177 resistance level on Monday and turned back to the down side. One would be logical to look at the activity since the start of the year and say we have a bullish reverse head and shoulder formed. It is just a tad short of my definition of a head and shoulder (or reverse H&S) pattern. I like to see the total points from the start of the move on the left to the R H&S neckline to be at least equal to the total points from the neckline to the bottom of the head. In this pattern the points to the neckline is just a little less than the number of points from the neckline to the head bottom. BUT it does LOOK like a reverse H&S so I wouldn’t quibble. However, should the move break above the neckline we should keep in mind that this is a short term pattern and the projection for such a move, based upon the H&S technique, would only be back to the previous high and not into a “box” break-out, which is what we are looking for.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday down 0.88 points or 0.51%. There were 21 winners, 20 losers and 9 spinning their wheels. Cameco lost 1.8%, First Uranium lost 15.5%, Paladin lost 4.0%, Uranium One was just spinning its wheels and Uranium Participation lost 0.5%. The best winner of the day was Terra Ventures with a gain of 10.0% while the worst loser was First Uranium with a loss of 15.5%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF was up 0.5%.
For the week as a whole the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index was down 44.81 points or 0.79%. There were 14 weekly winners, 32 weekly losers and 4 spinning their weekly. Cameco lost 4.8% on the week, First Uranium gained 24.4% on the week (despite the 15.5% loss on Friday), Paladin lost 9.2%, Uranium One lost 1.3% and Uranium Participation gained 0.8%. The best winner of the week was First Uranium with that 24.4% gain while the loser of the week was Mawson with a loss of 10.0%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF lost 0.6% on the week.
The long term indicators continue to tell us a different story using the Weekly or the Daily Index. The weekly Index remains just above a positive long term moving average while the momentum indicator remains in its positive zone. The long term rating for the Weekly Index remains BULLISH.
The Daily Index remains below its negative long term moving average line. The momentum indicator remains in its negative zone. The volume indicator continues to move sideways and remains below its long term negative trigger line. The Daily Index rating remains BEARISH.
On the intermediate term the Daily Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line. The momentum indicator remains in its negative zone and has once more dropped below its trigger line. The trigger, however, is still slightly positive. The volume indicator is moving sideways but is sitting right on top of its still negative trigger line. All in all the intermediate term rating remains BEARISH. This is confirmed by the short term moving average line remaining below the intermediate term line.
On the short term things were looking brighter last week but degenerated this week. The Daily Index closed on Friday just below its moving average line although the line itself is still in an upward trend. The momentum indicator is once more in its negative zone below its negative trigger line. The daily volume activity has perked up a little these past two days but one day was up and the other down so the perk-up is questionable right now. In any case the short term rating is back to a BEARISH rating.
To try and guess the immediate direction of least resistance today is a little bit iffy but I will go with the up side, although maybe I should go with my popular lateral trend. There is nothing that jumps out at me when looking at the indicators to go strongly one way or the other. The up side just gives me more pleasure hoping it will come true.
2 comments:
I guess the next question is to try and figure out if "spot" will ever go up again!
When one considers the spot weakness (since we have been in the box) you have to be pleased that the miners have held up as well as they have.
Merv, do you ever do any analysis on the spot market (even in private :) ) that might help us in determining future direction?
Looks like we have another 1.75 before spot support is broken, which could be that "heaven help us" scenario, should it break down.
That has my attention in trying to be a fortune teller going forward.
It irritates me that these stocks play so much on the spot price, but that is the way it appears to be.
Thoughts?
I am not fully up to speed as to how the spot price is determined. Is it based upon market pressures and could it be easily manipulated?
As a pure market technician I must believe that the speculators that have the capital to move stock prices know more than me as to what's happening in uranium (or any commodity for that matter). I go with their cumulative judgement and that is what technical analysis is all about.
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