Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
The short term or aggressive momentum indicators seem to be right on the money in warning of a reaction following an upside move. This latest reaction came just as the momentum indicator was warning. Unfortunately, the indicators do not tell you how long the reaction will go or how low it will go. For that we just have to follow the action every day and catch the warning signs again, this time for a new rally. Nothing yet to warn us of a rally ahead. Short term traders bounce on the warning signs but too often they find that the warning was either in error or just for a day or two before turning again. These short term traders must have nerves of steel.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index lost another 1.94 points or 1.03% today. There were only 11 winners, 34 losers and 5 confused. Cameco lost 1.1%, First Uranium lost 4.6%, Paladin lost 3.9%, Uranium One lost 0.9% and Uranium Participation lost 0.6%. The best of the bunch, RPT Uranium, gained 10.0% while the worst of the bunch, Quest Uranium, lost 9.2%. To round out the losers, Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF lost 1.5%.
On the intermediate term the Index remains well above its positive sloping moving average line. The momentum indicator has turned downward and just crossed below its trigger line but the trigger remains sloping upward. The indicator itself is still comfortably in its positive zone. The volume indicator remains above its up trend line and above its positive trigger line, although only slightly above. For now the intermediate term rating remains BULLISH.
On the short term the daily action has broken below the support trend line from the shorter term up trending channel but was able to still close on the day inside the channel. The Index closed the day still above its up trending moving average line but as with the channel, the daily low did break below the moving average line. The short term momentum indicator has broken below its trigger line and the trigger has turned to the down side. The indicator is still, however, above its neutral line in the positive zone. For now the short term rating remains BULLISH but getting very close to getting downsized.
The immediate direction of least resistance is once more to the down side. Be prepared to stick this out as we may drop back to the major up trend line, which would be about to the 176-178 level.