for week ending 25 December 2009
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 25 Dec 2009
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Daily and Weekly Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
Since its peak on the first of Dec. 2007 and the following low in April 2008 uranium price has been making consistently lower highs and higher lows. It’s at a point where it has to make up its mind, into new higher highs and a bull move or lower lows and a bear move. Which it will be is anyone’s guess at this point.
As for the trend of the stock Indices, both the Daily and Weekly Indices continue to move in a basic sideways direction inside that 8 month long box. I know it’s getting real boring but that’s the way it is. Sooner or later the Indices will move, probably along with a move by uranium itself. When they do we should expect a considerable move. The more speculative stocks will no doubt provide the best performances (up or down) but not all of them will. There will be laggards in the bunch, there always are. The short term Relative Strength (RS) numbers should give you the information as to which stocks are the leaders and which the laggards.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Thursday (Friday was a holiday in North America) on the up side with an advance of 0.96 points or 0.53%. There were 27 winners, 11 losers and 12 stocks totally confused and not knowing which way to go. Cameco gained 0.9%, First Uranium gained 1.4%, Paladin didn’t know where to go so stayed still, Uranium One gained 1.4% as did Uranium Participation. The best daily winner was Blue Sky Uranium with a gain of only 5.4% while the loser of the day was Pele Mountain with a loss of 9.5%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF gained 0.5%.
As for the week as a whole, the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index gained 100.20 points or 1.85%. There were 30 weekly winners, 15 losers and 5 going nowhere. Cameco gained 8.6%, First Uranium lost 1.4%, Paladin lost 3.4%, Uranium One gained 2.4% and Uranium Participation gained 0.5%. The best weekly winner was Mawson with a weekly gain of 23.3% while the loser of the week was NWT Uranium with a loss of 10.3%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF gained o.1%.
On the long term the indicators seem to be stuck where they have been for some time now. Both the Daily and Weekly Indices remain above their positive sloping moving average lines. The momentum indicators are also stuck in their long term positions. The Weekly momentum continues in its positive zone while the Daily momentum indicator continues in its negative zone. At a value of 49.80% the Daily Index is just about to move into its positive zone but we’ll wait for it. Despite the Daily Index momentum indicator in its negative zone I will continue to rate the long term for both Indices as BULLISH.
On the intermediate term things are once more looking rosy. The Daily Index is above its positive moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its positive zone. The momentum is also above its positive trigger line. The volume indicator is still basically moving in a sideways direction although it has moved above its positive sloping trigger line. On the intermediate term the rating is BULLISH.
On the short term things are just as encouraging. The Index is above its moving average line and the line is sloping upwards. The momentum indicator has moved into its positive zone and is above its positive trigger line. As for the daily volume action, that is pretty low but it’s the holiday season and many of the active speculators are on holiday. The short term is rated as BULLISH.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, that seems to be to the up side. The latest daily Index action has been to the up side and the Stochastic Oscillator is zooming upward. I will go with the up side for the next day or two.