for week ending 27 November 2009
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 27 Nov 2009
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Daily and Weekly Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
Friday was not so great in the markets. The Daily Index started the day on the down side, went lower, recovered and finally slid back to where it started. Everyone was confused and not knowing which way to go.
The Daily and Weekly Indices remain in their “boxes” and don’t seem to be in any hurry to get out. Since making its low in July the Daily Index has had a progressively higher high on each thrust. That seems to have ended as the latest high is considerably below its previous high. Whether this means anything is to be seen. Let’s get right into what’s happening.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday with a loss of 2.37 points or 1.35%. There were 16 winners, 23 losers and 11 confused. Cameco gained 0.2%, First Uranium was confused and went nowhere, Paladin gained 0.5%, Uranium One lost 1.3% and Uranium Participation gained 0.2%. The best winner of the day was Khan Resources with a gain of 38.6% (take-over activity, I think) while the worst loser on the day was Ucore Uranium with a loss of 6.7%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF lost 4.0%.
For the week as a whole, the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed higher by 95.85 points or 1.79%. There were 16 weekly winners, 29 losers and 5 confused. Cameco lost 4.4%, First Uranium gained 4.7%, Paladin lost 5.1%, Uranium One lost 4.7% and Uranium Participation lost 2.0%. The best winner of the week was Khan with a gain of 90.6% while the loser of the week was NWT Uranium with a loss of 13.3%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF lost 1.9%.
Not much has changed from the long term perspective. Both, the Daily and Weekly Indices, are above their long term positive sloping moving average lines but things are getting close. As for the momentum, we still have the Weekly Index momentum in its positive zone while the Daily Index momentum remains in its negative zone. As for the volume indicator, it is moving sideways but remains slightly above its positive sloping trigger line. All in all I would still rate the long term as BULLISH.
On the intermediate term things are getting negative. Friday’s action has moved the Index well below its moving average line and the line has turned downward. The momentum indicator has just inched into its negative zone and moving lower. It is below its negative trigger line. The volume indicator has just moved below its trigger line although the trigger is still pointing slightly upward. On the intermediate term I must go fully BEARISH.
On the short term things are not any better. The Index is below its negatively sloping moving average line. The momentum indicator has entered its negative zone and is moving lower below its negative sloping trigger line. The daily volume activity remains low, as one would expect while the Index drops. The short term rating remains BEARISH.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, everything is pointing lower so I’ll go with that.