for week ending 20 November 2009
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 20 Nov 2009
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Daily and Weekly Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
Another week and another basically sideways trend. The Daily Index closed about 1% higher while the Weekly Index closed lower but by 0.00%. It didn’t even register. We’re waiting, waiting for the next big move but it just doesn’t seem to be coming. It will, but in which direction and in what form, slow and steady or with a spurt of activity?
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday with a loss of 0.97 points or 0.55%. There were 20 winners, 23 losers and 7 just sitting there. The five largest stocks weren’t sure where to go. Cameco lost 1.4%, First Uranium didn’t know where to go ending the day with a big zero, Paladin gained 0.2%, Uranium One lost 3.6% and Uranium Participation lost 0.9%. The best daily winner was Benton with a gain of 11.1% while the loser on the day was Northern Continental with a loss of 5.9%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF lost 0.3%.
The Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed the week with a weekly loss of 0.16 points or 0.00%. There were 20 weekly winners, 28 losers and 2 on the sideline. As for those five largest stocks, Cameco gained 2.1% on the week, First Uranium lost 0.4%, Paladin gained 3.2%, Uranium One lost 5.0% and Uranium Participation lost 1.6%. The best weekly winner was Formation Capital with a weekly gain of 18.8% while the worst weekly loser was Ucore Uranium with a loss of 31.8%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF lost 2.6% on the week.
On the long term nothing much has changed from last week. Both the Weekly and Daily Indices remain above their positive moving average lines. The Weekly Index momentum remains just above its neutral line in the positive zone. The Daily Index momentum remains just below its neutral line in the negative zone. Both momentum indicators are moving in a basic lateral path. The long term volume indicator remains positive above its positive trigger line. I’ll call the long term rating as BULLISH even though the Daily Index is somewhat neutral.
The intermediate term is clearer but also on the verge of changing. For now the Daily Index remains just above its slightly positive sloping moving average line. The momentum indicator remains in its positive zone but has just dropped below its still positive trigger line. The volume indicator has also just dropped below its trigger line but the trigger remains in a positive slope. The intermediate term rating remains BULLISH for now.
The short term indicators are also looking weak but not yet reversed. The Daily Index remains just very little above a positive moving average line. The momentum indicator remains in its positive zone but has already moved below its trigger line and the trigger has turned downward. The daily volume action is low and Friday’s volume was below the 15 day average volume. All in all the short term is still rated as BULLISH but only very slightly so.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, with a Stochastic Oscillator that is below its negative sloping trigger line and moving lower and with the Index below its negative sloping very short term moving average line I think I’ll go with the down side as the direction of least resistance.