for week ending 30 October 2009
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 30 Oct 2009
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Daily and Weekly Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
Well, we had at least one up day during the week, but the FORCE is just not with us. However, the past few days do look like a lateral trend is upon us. How long it will last is anyone’s guess but I don’t think for too long. I do go with the comments that we have higher lows. Since the initial low was reached in early July followed by the first rally high, the subsequent lows and highs have been progressively higher and higher. Despite the Index drop this week we are still within that scenario.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed Friday on the down side retracing almost the full advance of the previous day. The Index lost 4.26 points or 2.46%. There were 6 winners, 37 losers and 7 confused. The five largest stocks by market value were all in the losers column. Cameco lost 0.1%, First Uranium lost 2.9%, Paladin lost 8.8%, Uranium One lost 1.0% and Uranium Participation lost 4.4%. The best winner of the day was Uracan with a gain of 13.3% while the loser of the day was Powertech with a loss of 9.9%. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF lost 3.6% on the day.
For the week as a whole, the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed lower by 480.81 points or 8.40%. There were only 5 stocks in the weekly winners circle while the losers circle had 44 and one stock just circling around. There was one winner in the top 5 stocks. Cameco lost 5.6%, First Uranium lost 3.9%, Paladin lost 15.5%, Uranium One was the lose winner with a gain of 1.7% and Uranium Participation lost 7.5%. The best of the 5 winners was Uracan with a gain of only 4.6% while the worst of the losers was Ucore Uranium with a loss of 25.0%. Market Vectors Nuclear ETF lost 7.3%.
For the long term we still have a divergence of indicators using the Daily Index versus the Weekly Index. They are, however, very close to confirming each other. Using the Daily Index the Index is below its long term moving average line although the line is still very slightly pointing upwards. The momentum indicator is in its negative zone after a very brief period in the positive. It is also below its negative trigger line. The volume indicator is just very slightly above its positive trigger line. Unfortunately, my summation of the Daily Index indicator gives me a BEARISH rating for the long term.
Using the Weekly Index, the Index remains above its positive sloping long term moving average line and the momentum indicator is still in its positive zone although moving downward and very close to its neutral line. I don’t really have a trigger line for the weekly Indices. The rating here would be BULLISH but weakening fast.
On the intermediate term nothing much is positive. The Daily Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone below its negative trigger line. The volume indicator is below its trigger line and the trigger has turned slightly downward. The only rating here is a BEARISH rating. One encouraging sign is the short term moving average line has not yet crossed below the intermediate term line for confirmation of this rating.
On the short term everything is not coming out roses. The Index is below its negative moving average line, the momentum in in its negative zone below its negative trigger and the daily volume action is below its 15 day average volume (although this may be seen as a positive). The short term rating remains BEARISH.
I’m still waiting for that Stochastic Oscillator to move above its oversold line for a signal that we might be in a rally mode, but it remains below the line. It is, however, above its positive trigger line so maybe on Monday we will get the sign that a rally is in progress (although you wouldn’t know it from Friday’s action). With the Index still below its sharply negative sloping very short term moving average line but with an SO that is ready to break above its oversold line I will go with a continuation of the lateral trend for Monday.
SPORADIC POSTING NEXT WEEK OR TWO
I am traveling this week-end and will be on the move for the next week or two so time will be limited and posting next week and the following week may be somewhat sporadic. I will try and post as often as possible, maybe with limited comments.