for week ending 23 October 2009
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 23 Oct 2009
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Daily and Weekly Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
That wasn’t a very productive week. We went up, we came down, in the end we hardly went anyplace. Looking at a chart going back a year or so it looks like we are in a very long term lateral channel and can’t seem to get out of it. We are presently near the top of the channel and need a few good upside days before we can get out, but those do not seem to be on hand. Short term the trend seems to be a bummer while for the intermediate and long term things are still pretty good, indicator wise. Let’s get to it.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday on a downer. It was lower by 4.33 points or 2.31%. There were 13 winners, 30 losers and 7 confused. As for the five largest stocks, Cameco lost 2.2%, First Uranium lost 3.1%, Paladin lost 4.4%, Uranium One lost 4.4% and Uranium Participation gained 0.1%. The Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF lost 2.6%. The best performer on the day was Alberta Star with a gain of 16.1% while there were two worst performers with the same performance. Rockgate Capital and Uracan each lost 7.1%.
For the week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed higher by 83.36 points or 1.48%. There were 19 winners on the week, 28 losers and 7 going nowhere. With so many more losers than winners it was only the fact that 3 stocks had more than 30% gains each that the Index stayed above water. The five largest stocks couldn’t get their act together and were mixed for the week. Cameco gained 4.1%, First Uranium lost 8.8%, Paladin gained 1.1%, Uranium One lost 1.3% and Uranium Participation gained 8.0%. The Market Vectors ETF lost 1.7%. The best weekly performer was Alberta Star with a weekly gain of 38.5% while the worst weekly performer was First Uranium with that 8.8% loss.
On the long term both the Daily and the Weekly Indices are above their positive sloping long term moving average lines. As for the momentum, we had a difference of opinion between the Daily and Weekly Indices as far as the long term momentum was concerned. The Weekly has basically been in positive territory while the Daily had been in negative territory. During the week the Daily long term momentum poked its head above its neutral line into the positive zone for the first time since 04 Jan 2008. However, by Friday it was back in the negative zone with those three downer market days. The Daily indicator is still above its positive trigger line. Both Indices provide us with long term ratings that are BULLISH.
For the intermediate term everything is still going good, but starting to show possible weakness. The Daily Index remains well above its positive sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its positive zone. The indicator has now dropped below its trigger line but the trigger is still pointing upwards. The volume indicator is moving lower but remains above its positive trigger line. For the intermediate term the rating remains BULLISH.
For the short term the Daily Index closed the week just above the positive moving average line. The momentum indicator remains in its positive zone but moving lower and has dropped below its trigger line. The trigger has now turned to the down side. As for the daily volume action, the volume has decreased substantially the past couple of days corresponding to the down Index days. This is as one would expect and does not really signify anything in particular. For the short term the rating remains BULLISH but could change any day.
For the direction of least resistance, everything looks negative. The Stochastic Oscillator continues to plunge although it ended the week just a shade above its neutral line. The Index has moved below its very short term moving average line and the line has turned to the down side. It looks like the next few days will be bummers, or at best lateral.