for week ending 16 October 2009
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 16 Oct 2009
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Daily and Weekly Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
Well, we had seen higher daily highs during mid-Sept move but Friday’s closing Daily Index was the highest daily close since mid-June. Does this portent what’s to come? Let’s wait another day or so to confirm the high.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday up 3.92 points or 2.19%. The winners and losers, however, do not conform with this close. There were 16 winners, 25 losers and 9 going nowhere. The top 5 stocks were mixed also. Cameco gained 0.3%, First Uranium lost 2.5%, Paladin lost 0.4%, Uranium One gained 1.0% and Uranium Participation lost 1.3%. The best winner on the day was US Energy with a gain of 65.5% - WOW. The biggest loser on the day was Pitchstone with a loss of 10.6%. Just an observations but if we subtract that gain by US Energy then the Daily Index would have shown a negative day. It is not as good as it looks that’s why one should wait another day to see if there is a follow through by the other stocks.
On the week as a whole the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed the week up 106.22 points or 1.92%. Again, if we subtract that US Energy move from the Index calculation we are back into a negative week. There were 23 weekly winners, 25 losers and 2 going nowhere. For the week Cameco lost 0.5%, First Uranium lost 5.8%, Paladin gained 1.3%, Uranium One lost 2.9% and Uranium Participation gained 3.2%. The best Weekly winner was, surprise, US Energy with a weekly gain of 66.4% while the worst weekly loser was Ucore Uranium with a weekly loss of 19.8%.
As with the Daily Index the Weekly Index close is at its highest level since June but still a little below recovery highs. Both Indices are above their positive long term moving average line. The Weekly momentum indicator is positive while the Daily Index long term momentum indicator is still negative but about to go positive. It is at 49.78 (50 is neutral level) and at its highest level since Jan of 2008. The volume indicator is moving higher but still needs to show some better action. On the long term both Indices are rated as BULLISH.
On the intermediate term everything is A-OKAY. The Daily Index remains above its positive moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its positive zone above its positive trigger line. The volume indicator is above its positive trigger line. The rating remains BULLISH.
On the short term things are the same. The Index remains above its positive moving average line and the momentum indicator remains above its positive trigger line in its positive zone. The daily volume action could be somewhat better. One would want to see the daily volume increase with the Index increase but the volume remains weak. Still, the short term rating remains BULLISH.
Friday’s action with the Index closing at its upper end of the trading range has caused the Stochastic Oscillator to start to turn upwards. It has not completed the turn and is still below its trigger line so we need to wait another day or two to see how this plays itself out. I am still of the opinion that we shall see somewhat lower prices ahead. How low and for how long is still questionable.
By the way, before sharp minds bring me up to speed I reviewed US Energy web site and discovered that they no longer have uranium assets although they are in for some royalties from their previous assets. I will be delisting US Energy during the week. Whether I go back and correct the Index for this error I’m not sure yet. Usually one stock does not make a difference to the Index value but it did on Friday. Maybe in the end I will correct the Friday value for the deletion of US Energy. For the oil and gas crowd out there this may be a good stock for you as it seems to be moving due to its oil and gas play.