for week ending 25 September 2009
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 25 Sep 2009
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Daily and Weekly Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
Well, that wasn’t such a good week. We had a weekly decline of 4.27% on the Weekly and 5.00% on the Daily Index. We just can’t seem to get that steam to get the juices flowing. It does look like we are going to get a little rally or bounce from about here. Looking at the Stochastic Oscillator, over the past few months every time the SO got close to or below its oversold line we had a rally within days. We are there again.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday with a loss of 0.10 points or 0.06%. There were 15 daily winners, 21 daily losers and a whole pile of stocks (14) not going anywhere. Except for one not going anywhere the rest of the five largest stocks were all winners. Cameco gained 0.4%, First Uranium gained 1.1%, Paladin was the only confused stock going nowhere, Uranium One gained 1.7% and Uranium Participation gained 1.1%. As for the best and the worst, they barely moved. The best performer on the day was Freewest with a gain of only 6.7% while the worst performer on the day was Continental Precious with a loss of only 6.5%.
For the week as a whole, the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed with a weekly loss of 234.56 points or 4.27%. There were 9 weekly winners, 39 weekly losers and two marking time. Of the five largest stocks, Cameco lost 2.9%, First Uranium lost 27.2%, Paladin lost 2.1%, Uranium One lost 9.6% and Uranium Participation lost 0.6%. The best weekly winner was CanAlaska Uranium with a gain of 26.7% while the worst weekly loser was First Uranium with that loss of 27.2%.
Although the indicators are getting closer to some sort of reversal, at the present time things have not changed during the past week from the long term perspective. The Weekly and Daily Indices remain above their positive sloping moving average lines and the momentum indicators remain as they were last week. The Weekly momentum is in its positive zone while the Daily momentum indicator remains in its negative zone. Although the volume indicator had moved above its trigger line it is once more below the trigger. The trigger line in turn is heading lower. Still, when I put everything together and go over to my magical formulae I still get a rating of BULLISH, but quickly coming to a possible change shortly.
On the intermediate term I must make a correction. On Thursday I said that the Index had closed very slightly below its moving average line. I should have said that it closed just very slightly ABOVE its moving average line. Today, once more the Index is very, very slightly above its moving average line and the line is still very, very gently sloping upwards. The momentum indicator is still very slightly above its neutral line in the positive zone. However, the momentum remains below its negative sloping trigger line. As for the volume indicator, it is slightly below its negative sloping trigger line. Despite the slightly negative volume indicator the rest is positive making the rating a BULLISH rating, as it also should have shown for Thursday. The indicators are so close to changing that one more negative day, regardless how small, may push them over into the negative.
The short term is more clear cut. The Daily Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line and the very short term moving average line has just crossed below the short term line. The momentum indicator remains in the negative zone below its negative sloping trigger line. The daily volume action is somewhat lower than in earlier times but that is not unusual during a negative price move. All in all, the short term rating remains BEARISH.
The Stochastic Oscillator is pointing almost straight down but as mentioned earlier it is at a location where the Index had previously started rallies from. The very short term moving average line is also heading lower with a vengeance. I’ll go with the SO and stick with the lateral direction as the one with least resistance. In another day or so I will hope to go to the up side.