for week ending 18 September 2009
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 18 Sep 2009
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Daily and Weekly Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
We seem to be getting many “box” patterns in this Daily Uranium Index. Since mid-June the Index had been boxed in by 180 on the top and just below the 155 on the bottom. During this box phase the Index had undergone a double bottom pattern and the move through the 180 level was the confirmation that we did have a double bottom. This double bottom (July 8 and Sept 2) gives us a price projection to the 205 level. This would be into new recovery high territory and would most likely set off other, higher projections. I still have that P&F projection to 300. Now if only the move would not stall out. Little hesitations like we have had these past couple of days are normal and nothing to worry about, unless they continue and become something more than a rest period.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday on a very minor down note. It lost 0.15 points or 0.08%. The winners and losers were evenly split with 20 winners, 20 losers and 10 totally confused. The five largest were also all over the map. Cameco lost 3.4%, First Uranium gained 4.6%, Paladin lost 0.9%, Uranium One gained 1.6% and Uranium Participation lost 0.8%. The best winner on the day was Forsys Metals with a gain of 10.8% while the loser on the day was Rockgate Capital with a loss of 8.1%.
As for the week as a whole, the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index gained 202.38 points or 3.82%. There were 29 weekly winners, 17 weekly losers and 4 weekly lazy bums going nowhere. I was hoping that all five of the largest stocks would be in the winner’s circle but unfortunately one stock was a loser. Cameco gained 3.9%, First Uranium gained 8.7%, Paladin was the loser with a loss of 0.5%, Uranium One gained 11.1% and Uranium Participation gained 1.7%. The best weekly winner was Strateco with a weekly gain of 39.7% while the loser on the week was Kodiak Exploration with a weekly loss of 16.3%.
Nothing during the week has changed to affect the long term rating for the Daily or Weekly Indices. Both are still above their positive sloping moving average lines. The Weekly momentum indicator remains in its positive zone while the Daily momentum indicator remains just very slightly below its neutral line in the positive zone. The daily momentum is, however, above its positive sloping trigger line. The long term volume indicator continues in a lateral path but slightly above its positive trigger line. The long term rating therefore remains BULLISH.
The intermediate term can be seen as in a similar situation as the long term. The Index remains above its moving average line and the line slope remains upward. The momentum indicator remains in its positive zone above a positive trigger line. The volume indicator remains above its positive trigger line. All in all, the intermediate term rating remains BULLISH.
On the short term the Index continues to move within the confines of that up trending channel. The Index is presently sitting right on top of that 180 resistance line (which should now be acting like a support). It is also above its positive moving average line. The momentum indicator remains in its positive zone above a positive trigger line. The daily volume action is acting as one would imagine. Higher on the up side and lower on the down side. This is normal action for a daily volume action and at this time really doesn’t signify a positive or negative. However, putting it all together the short term rating remains BULLISH.
Dare I try at guessing the immediate direction of least resistance? The Stochastic Oscillator remains in its positive zone but is weaving and appears undecided as to which way to go from here. The Index remains above the very short term moving average line but its tail is testing the area below the moving average line. I think I’ll stick with the lateral direction again.