Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 5 0 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
As mentioned yesterday, I could see the direction of motion in the aggressive chart and indicators but was hoping they were wrong. Nope, they were right. The Daily Index took a serious decline today. It must have been catch-up to Tuesday’s uranium price decline. It looks like we may be heading back to the previous 155 low level and back into the “box”. We just have to go with the flow and never fight the tape, or for you youngsters, the computer screen. The tape, of course, was that wonderful mechanism of a hundred years ago which provided brokers and speculators the “intra-day” stock activity information. You need to watch some old black and white movies from the 30’s to see what it was like. The tape was also what the New Yorkers threw out their windows during those “ticker tape” parades. Oh for the good old days. I can just see it all today, “computer monitor” parades. It just doesn’t have the same feel.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower by 6.82 points or 3.84%. There were only 6 winners, 40 losers and 4 totally confused. All of the five largest stocks were losers today, Cameco lost 4.3%, First Uranium lost 6.1%, Paladin lost 1.4%, Uranium One lost 2.5% and Uranium Participation lost 2.6%. Pitchstone was the best of the 6 winners gaining 7.6% while Pinetree was the worst of the 40 losers losing only 10.0%. Despite the serious down day the losers were not really in a mood to lose too much. Pinetree was the only stock with a double digit loss. All other stocks were in the single digit. Usually there would be several double digit losses and much higher than only 10%. Trying to find something encouraging from the decline I would think that this action suggests that at this time the speculators are not REALLY dumping their stocks. That may come but not yet.
The Daily Index closed just a hair below its intermediate term moving average line but the line itself remains slightly in the positive slope. The momentum indicator is rapidly moving lower but has not quite made it into the negative zone. It is below its negative sloping trigger line. The volume indicator is moving lower and has just breached its trigger line to the down side, however, the trigger is still mildly sloping upward. Another day of downside action and most of these indicators could turn fully negative. For today, the summation of the indicators gives me a – NEUTRAL rating, just shy of a full bearish rating.
On the short term the Index closed well below the moving average line and the line slope has turned negative. The momentum indicator has now moved into its negative zone and remains below its negative sloping trigger line. The volume indicator suggests a daily volume less than in earlier times, which one would expect in a down move. For today the rating has gone fully to the BEARISH side.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been telegraphing the downside move for days now. It continues. So, I guess I will stick with the down side as the direction of least resistance for another day.