Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 28 August 2009
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 28 Aug 2009
Open: 165.53
Hugh: 168.16
Low: 161.51
Close: 164.82
Volume: 3605
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Daily and Weekly Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
Lot of things going on in the charts, few of them are encouraging at this point. The Daily Index seems to have a hell of a time to really get away from that third FAN trend line, shown as a dash line today. The past several days has given us a downward sloping short term channel that is in parallel to the FAN trend line. We should be getting a bounce as the Index is close to the lower channel line. In addition, the 160 support seems to be holding for one small mercy. However, the 180 resistance is also holding and keeping the Index from any new bull move. Those are just some of the obvious features of the chart except for the indicators discussed below.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday on a very, very mild up note. It advanced 0.03 points or 0.02%. The winners and losers were identical at 21 each. That leaves 8 going nowhere fast. We had only one loser among the top five stocks. Cameco gained 1.0%, First Uranium gained 1.5%, Paladin gained 2.2%, Uranium One gained 0.4% and Uranium Participation lost 2.2%. The best daily winner was Crosshair Exploration with a gain of 9.5% while the loser of the day was Terra Ventures with a loss of 9.1%.
On the week as a whole, the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index lost 90.50 points or 1.79%. There were 16 weekly winners, 30 losers and 4 lost in the game and going nowhere. As for those five largest stocks we had the opposite to the daily performance in that there was only one winner in the bunch. Cameco lost 2.9%, First Uranium lost 7.4%, Paladin was the winner with a gain of 2.5%, Uranium One lost 3.4% and Uranium Participation lost 6.1%. Is it my imagination or has Uranium Participation been a consistent loser ever since it was put back into the top 5 category? The best weekly winner was US Energy with a weekly gain of 27.9% while the loser of the week was Forsys Metals (looks like no merger) with a loss of 23.4%.
Nothing in the long term indicators has changed over the past many weeks, although some indicators are getting very close to changing. Both the Weekly and Daily Indices remain above their positive sloping moving average lines. The Daily Index is right on top of its moving average and has dropped below on an intra-day basis these past couple of days. As for the long term momentum indicators, we continue to have the same situation as over the past many weeks. The weekly Index momentum remains just above its neutral line while the Daily Index momentum remains just below its neutral line. In both cases the momentum is moving lower. The long term volume indicator continues in a lateral path with a negative bias. It is below its negative trigger line. However, despite some minor negatives the long term rating remains BULLISH (although it would be + NEUTRAL using only the Daily Index).
On the intermediate term things are clear cut. The Daily Index is below its negative moving average line. The momentum indicator is in its negative zone below its negative trigger line and the volume indicator is below its negative trigger line. So, I guess the rating here must be BEARISH. The short term moving average line is tracking below the intermediate term line for confirmation of the bearish rating.
On the short term things are just as clear. The Daily Index is below its negative sloping short term moving average line. The momentum indicator is in its negative zone moving lower below its negative trigger line. The daily volume action remains very low. During a down trending market low volume readings do not mean anything. So, from all this we get a short term BEARISH rating. The very short term moving average line is tracking below the short term line for confirmation of the bearish rating.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, my guess would be to the up side although that might still be a few days off. The Friday action looked like it could be a halt to the recent down side action. The Stochastic Oscillator has not moved into new lows for a few weeks now despite the Index making new recent lows. Although I expect some bounce I will go with the lateral as the continuing trend.
Wouldn’t you just know it. I no sooner place Ucore into the Index then it goes heading in the wrong direction. It is, of course, just a reaction to a very strong upside action over the past many weeks.
for week ending 28 August 2009
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 28 Aug 2009
Open: 165.53
Hugh: 168.16
Low: 161.51
Close: 164.82
Volume: 3605
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Daily and Weekly Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
Lot of things going on in the charts, few of them are encouraging at this point. The Daily Index seems to have a hell of a time to really get away from that third FAN trend line, shown as a dash line today. The past several days has given us a downward sloping short term channel that is in parallel to the FAN trend line. We should be getting a bounce as the Index is close to the lower channel line. In addition, the 160 support seems to be holding for one small mercy. However, the 180 resistance is also holding and keeping the Index from any new bull move. Those are just some of the obvious features of the chart except for the indicators discussed below.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday on a very, very mild up note. It advanced 0.03 points or 0.02%. The winners and losers were identical at 21 each. That leaves 8 going nowhere fast. We had only one loser among the top five stocks. Cameco gained 1.0%, First Uranium gained 1.5%, Paladin gained 2.2%, Uranium One gained 0.4% and Uranium Participation lost 2.2%. The best daily winner was Crosshair Exploration with a gain of 9.5% while the loser of the day was Terra Ventures with a loss of 9.1%.
On the week as a whole, the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index lost 90.50 points or 1.79%. There were 16 weekly winners, 30 losers and 4 lost in the game and going nowhere. As for those five largest stocks we had the opposite to the daily performance in that there was only one winner in the bunch. Cameco lost 2.9%, First Uranium lost 7.4%, Paladin was the winner with a gain of 2.5%, Uranium One lost 3.4% and Uranium Participation lost 6.1%. Is it my imagination or has Uranium Participation been a consistent loser ever since it was put back into the top 5 category? The best weekly winner was US Energy with a weekly gain of 27.9% while the loser of the week was Forsys Metals (looks like no merger) with a loss of 23.4%.
Nothing in the long term indicators has changed over the past many weeks, although some indicators are getting very close to changing. Both the Weekly and Daily Indices remain above their positive sloping moving average lines. The Daily Index is right on top of its moving average and has dropped below on an intra-day basis these past couple of days. As for the long term momentum indicators, we continue to have the same situation as over the past many weeks. The weekly Index momentum remains just above its neutral line while the Daily Index momentum remains just below its neutral line. In both cases the momentum is moving lower. The long term volume indicator continues in a lateral path with a negative bias. It is below its negative trigger line. However, despite some minor negatives the long term rating remains BULLISH (although it would be + NEUTRAL using only the Daily Index).
On the intermediate term things are clear cut. The Daily Index is below its negative moving average line. The momentum indicator is in its negative zone below its negative trigger line and the volume indicator is below its negative trigger line. So, I guess the rating here must be BEARISH. The short term moving average line is tracking below the intermediate term line for confirmation of the bearish rating.
On the short term things are just as clear. The Daily Index is below its negative sloping short term moving average line. The momentum indicator is in its negative zone moving lower below its negative trigger line. The daily volume action remains very low. During a down trending market low volume readings do not mean anything. So, from all this we get a short term BEARISH rating. The very short term moving average line is tracking below the short term line for confirmation of the bearish rating.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, my guess would be to the up side although that might still be a few days off. The Friday action looked like it could be a halt to the recent down side action. The Stochastic Oscillator has not moved into new lows for a few weeks now despite the Index making new recent lows. Although I expect some bounce I will go with the lateral as the continuing trend.
Wouldn’t you just know it. I no sooner place Ucore into the Index then it goes heading in the wrong direction. It is, of course, just a reaction to a very strong upside action over the past many weeks.
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