Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 14 August 2009
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 14 Aug 2009
Open: 175.55
Hugh: 179.33
Low: 171.88
Close: 175.91
Volume: 3685
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Daily and Weekly Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
It was sort of a quiet week. The Daily Index went down a little, it went up a little and despite Thursday’s move the Index ended the week barely ahead of the previous Friday. The Weekly Index ended down about the same minimal amount. The Daily Index is still trapped below that 180 resistance and is looking like it wants to attempt a breach. We’ll see next week. The Index has now set up a new up trend line after the bottom during the week. It has not yet set up a channel (you need two highs to do that) but I have indicated about where that upper channel line just might be. Once again we’re all set up for a move. Will it or not, that is the question?
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed Friday on a very minor down note. It was lower by 0.21 points or 0.12%. Almost nothing. There were 15 winners, 27 losers and 8 stocks doing nothing. Of the five largest stocks Cameco lost 0.5%, First Uranium lost 0.9%, Paladin lost 3.2%, Uranium One gained 1.1% and USEC gained 5.1%. The best performer on Friday was Western Uranium with a gain of 18.1% while the worst performer was Pinetree Capital with a loss of 8.9%.
One company not yet in the Index and even would qualify as one of the top five is Extract Res. Ltd., an Australian company that also trades on the TSX. It will become part of the Index and top 5 when we have more historical data available. At the present I have only about 5 months of active trading on the TSX. So, I would not expect EXT to be part of the Index till at least early next year. Over the past year or so, trading on the Australian market, EXT has advanced to become a 10 bagger. The action seems to indicate more ahead but a rest period or maybe even a reaction is in order.
On the weekly front the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed the week with a loss of 16.80 points or 0.32%. There were 22 weekly winners, 28 losers and everyone knew where they were going. As for those (present) top five stocks by market value, Cameco gained 3.9% on the week, First Uranium lost 8.0%, Paladin gained 0.7%, Uranium One lost 4.8% and USEC gained 0,8%. The best weekly performer was East Asia Minerals with a gain of 31.9% while the worst weekly performer was Powertech Uranium with a loss of 24.5%.
I’m still mulling over whether to continue with East Asia Minerals in the Index as its recent move is primarily due to gold activity. I did not have it in my Gold service but have included it this past week. I should decide this week. Most likely it will be removed from the Uranium Index.
The long term prognosis has not changed much lately. We still have the same situation we have had for months. Both the Daily and Weekly Indices are above their positive sloping long term moving average lines. As for the momentum indicators, we still have the Weekly momentum in the positive zone and the Daily long term momentum in the negative zone. The long term daily momentum is above its positive trigger line and is above its previous highs back to the middle of June. It has exceeded the highs from the past two months which the Index itself has not yet done. This shows a little extra strength behind the price move not seen in the price itself. For the long term I will continue with the BULLISH rating.
As for the intermediate term the Index had moved above its moving average line on Thursday and remains above the line. The line has now turned to the up side. The momentum indicator continues in its positive zone and above a positive trigger line. The volume indicator continues in a basic lateral direction but is below its trigger line although the trigger remains slightly positive. Putting it all together the intermediate term rating is BULLISH.
On the short term all indicators are positive and the moving average has just crossed (but only barely) above the intermediate term moving average line. The Index is above its positive moving average line and the momentum continues in its positive zone and above its positive trigger line. The next move for the short term is a breach of that resistance line. In the mean time the short term rating remains BULLISH.
With the very short term moving average line continuing above the short term line and the Stochastic Oscillator moving higher into its positive zone I will stick with the upside as the direction of least resistance for another day.
Is everyone ready to jump in with both feet in the next week or two? Should the Index move decisively above that 180 resistance there should be plenty of stocks turning to the up side for new moves. I don’t want to think what would happen if the Index does not breach that 180 level.
Having said all that one thought continually goes through my mind. The market does what it has to do to confuse most investors most of the time.
for week ending 14 August 2009
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 14 Aug 2009
Open: 175.55
Hugh: 179.33
Low: 171.88
Close: 175.91
Volume: 3685
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Daily and Weekly Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
It was sort of a quiet week. The Daily Index went down a little, it went up a little and despite Thursday’s move the Index ended the week barely ahead of the previous Friday. The Weekly Index ended down about the same minimal amount. The Daily Index is still trapped below that 180 resistance and is looking like it wants to attempt a breach. We’ll see next week. The Index has now set up a new up trend line after the bottom during the week. It has not yet set up a channel (you need two highs to do that) but I have indicated about where that upper channel line just might be. Once again we’re all set up for a move. Will it or not, that is the question?
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed Friday on a very minor down note. It was lower by 0.21 points or 0.12%. Almost nothing. There were 15 winners, 27 losers and 8 stocks doing nothing. Of the five largest stocks Cameco lost 0.5%, First Uranium lost 0.9%, Paladin lost 3.2%, Uranium One gained 1.1% and USEC gained 5.1%. The best performer on Friday was Western Uranium with a gain of 18.1% while the worst performer was Pinetree Capital with a loss of 8.9%.
One company not yet in the Index and even would qualify as one of the top five is Extract Res. Ltd., an Australian company that also trades on the TSX. It will become part of the Index and top 5 when we have more historical data available. At the present I have only about 5 months of active trading on the TSX. So, I would not expect EXT to be part of the Index till at least early next year. Over the past year or so, trading on the Australian market, EXT has advanced to become a 10 bagger. The action seems to indicate more ahead but a rest period or maybe even a reaction is in order.
On the weekly front the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed the week with a loss of 16.80 points or 0.32%. There were 22 weekly winners, 28 losers and everyone knew where they were going. As for those (present) top five stocks by market value, Cameco gained 3.9% on the week, First Uranium lost 8.0%, Paladin gained 0.7%, Uranium One lost 4.8% and USEC gained 0,8%. The best weekly performer was East Asia Minerals with a gain of 31.9% while the worst weekly performer was Powertech Uranium with a loss of 24.5%.
I’m still mulling over whether to continue with East Asia Minerals in the Index as its recent move is primarily due to gold activity. I did not have it in my Gold service but have included it this past week. I should decide this week. Most likely it will be removed from the Uranium Index.
The long term prognosis has not changed much lately. We still have the same situation we have had for months. Both the Daily and Weekly Indices are above their positive sloping long term moving average lines. As for the momentum indicators, we still have the Weekly momentum in the positive zone and the Daily long term momentum in the negative zone. The long term daily momentum is above its positive trigger line and is above its previous highs back to the middle of June. It has exceeded the highs from the past two months which the Index itself has not yet done. This shows a little extra strength behind the price move not seen in the price itself. For the long term I will continue with the BULLISH rating.
As for the intermediate term the Index had moved above its moving average line on Thursday and remains above the line. The line has now turned to the up side. The momentum indicator continues in its positive zone and above a positive trigger line. The volume indicator continues in a basic lateral direction but is below its trigger line although the trigger remains slightly positive. Putting it all together the intermediate term rating is BULLISH.
On the short term all indicators are positive and the moving average has just crossed (but only barely) above the intermediate term moving average line. The Index is above its positive moving average line and the momentum continues in its positive zone and above its positive trigger line. The next move for the short term is a breach of that resistance line. In the mean time the short term rating remains BULLISH.
With the very short term moving average line continuing above the short term line and the Stochastic Oscillator moving higher into its positive zone I will stick with the upside as the direction of least resistance for another day.
Is everyone ready to jump in with both feet in the next week or two? Should the Index move decisively above that 180 resistance there should be plenty of stocks turning to the up side for new moves. I don’t want to think what would happen if the Index does not breach that 180 level.
Having said all that one thought continually goes through my mind. The market does what it has to do to confuse most investors most of the time.
2 comments:
Hi Merv,
clearly in the Uranium business there are only a few pure Uranium mining companies with a remarkable market cap. Besides East Asia Minerals there are some more Companies in your index more or less depending on other resources than uranium. One more example is Formation Capital. The share price of this company depends IMO solely on the financing of their Cobalt mine in Idaho. Another problem are the Austalian companies. Not only Extract is missing in your index! But I won't go in more details. It's your index and it covers really a lot of Uranium mining companies and I guess your index shows very well how investors in Uranium act.
Hopefully the 15 DMAw will clearly cross the 65 DMAw on Monday or Tuesday upwards. This would be a hint for overcomming the 180 resistance barrier. IMO.
Keep doing!
maxxu
Maxxu,
The fact that many companies have other interests, some even major other interests, is reflected in my front page comment on uranium companies.
The Index reflects ONLY those companies that are trading, relatively actively, on the North American markets, regardless of their home base. There are many Australian companies that trade only in Australia that are not included due to my lack of daily and historical trading data.
I am always open to suggestions about companies that might be included into the Index that I might have overlooked. The better to serve the public.
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