for week ending 07 August 2009
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 07 Aug 2009
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Note that additional charts of the Daily and Weekly Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.
If it weren’t for the move on Tuesday (Monday was a holiday in Ontario, the location of the TSX) we would not have had any performance this past week. Once Tuesday was over the Daily Index just sat there doing nothing for the next 3 days. Yes it was up and it was down but by so little it wasn’t worth while considering. But I guess every little bit counts and in the end it’s the summation of activity that one looks at from a longer term standpoint.
We’re still slightly below that major resistance at the 180 level but above the third FAN trend line. Trapped between the two. The daily volume is drying up fast, which I will take as a good sign at this time. Speculators may not be rushing into the stocks but they are not dumping the stocks either.
A commenter mentioned that East Asia was moving because of its gold activity. This seems to be so. However, as mentioned at the top of the front page most companies have more than one activity and I am not in a position to judge which activity at what point in time is the dominant one. East Asia seems to be a straight forward example and I’m just mulling over in my mind if the gold activity is so dominant as to negate the value of its uranium properties. Many of the Index component companies have gold interests.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday up a whole 0.13 points or 0.07%. GO Index GO. Maybe it needs some cheerleading. There were 14 winners on the day, 23 losers and 13 confused soles. As for those five largest stocks, Cameco lost 0.1%, First Uranium lost 2.1%, Paladin gained 1.0%, Uranium One gained 2.8% and USEC gained 2.6%. The best winner on the day was East Asia with a gain of 19.3% while the loser on the day was Continental Resources with a loss of 8.2%.
As for the week as a whole, the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed the week higher by 171.97 points or 3.42%. There were 28 weekly winners, 21 weekly losers and one lonely confused stock going nowhere. Cameco gained 2.3% on the week, First Uranium lost 4.6%, Paladin gained 1.2%, Uranium One gained 2.1% and USEC gained 21.7%. The best weekly winner was Forsys Metals with a weekly gain of 34.6% while the weekly loser was Bannerman with a loss of 13.3%.
The long term situation has not changed for quite some time. Both the Weekly and Daily Indices long term moving averages are below their respective Indices and are pointing upwards. The long term momentum indicators are still on opposite sides of their neutral lines. The Weekly Index momentum continues to be in its positive zone while the long term Daily Index momentum remains in its negative zone, just below the neutral line. The long term volume indicator we get from the Daily Index. It has been moving in a lateral direction and this week the indicator moved below the trigger but ended the week above the trigger line. The trigger remains sloping in a positive direction. The long term rating will remain BULLISH for now.
The intermediate term is a mixture. The Daily Index is above its moving average line but the line is still sloping downward. The momentum indicator remains in its positive zone above its positive sloping trigger line. The volume indicator remains just below its negative sloping trigger line. Despite the negative moving average line slope and the negative volume indicator the rest of the indicators sum up to still a BULLISH intermediate term rating, although very precarious.
The short term is a little clearer. The Index is above its positive sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator is in its positive zone above a positive sloping trigger line. Only the daily volume activity is a cautionary indicator. However, the short term rating remains BULLISH.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, that would be the lateral direction. The Stochastic Oscillator did not quite reach its overbought zone and has turned down. It has crossed below its trigger line but the trigger remains positive. The direction of recent price activity has been most definitely sideways.