Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 10 July 2009
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 10 July 2009
Open: 157.91
Hugh: 160.57
Low: 154.92
Close: 158.24
Volume: 3256
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
I’ve been away from serious blogging for about the past two weeks. During that time things have not been going too well. The Daily Index has been in a free fall while the Weekly Index has lost a lot of ground. So, where does that leave us today? I guess there is a combination of good news and bad news. The good news being that the bad news is so bad it can’t get much worse. Let’s get right to our routine.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday down just a little bit. It was down 0.89 points or 0.56%. There were 16 winners (always good to have winners) and 24 losers (not so good to have these) while 10 stocks had no idea what they wanted to do. All of our five largest stocks by market value were on the down side but nothing too critical. Cameco lost 0.1%, First Uranium lost 2.5%, Paladin lost 2.0%, Uranium One lost 1.1% and USEC lost 0.2%. The best winner of the day was Wescan Goldfields with a gain of 17.7% while the loser on the day was UEX Corp with a loss of 8.5%.
For the week as a whole, the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index was down 361.64 points or 7.15%. The winners/losers were a disaster area this past week. There were only 7 on the winner’s side while the losers numbered 40. Three stocks just stood still. We had one winner in the top 5 stocks. Cameco lost 7.1% on the week, First Uranium lost 15.4%, Paladin lost 11.3%, Uranium One was the one winner with a big gain of 0.4% and USEC lost 5.4%. The best weekly winner out of those 7 winners was Xemplar Energy with a weekly gain of 17.5% while Uranerz Energy was the loser of the week with a weekly loss of 28.5%.
Both the Weekly and the Daily Indices show a long term upward sloping channel with the Index basically sitting right on top of the lower support line. Both show their respective Indices to be just above their long term moving average lines and the lines are still in an upward slope. The momentum indicator of the Weekly Index has now moved into its negative zone while the Daily momentum indicator remains just below its neutral line and had not yet entered its positive zone. As for the volume indicator, it is showing signs of exhaustion but remains slightly above its positive trigger line. For the first time in a few months the long term indicator has been downgraded. The best rating I can give the long term is a + NEUTRAL rating. Things are moving towards a long term bear but it’s not quite there yet.
As for the intermediate term, the Daily Index remains below its negative moving average line with the momentum indicator in its negative zone below its negative trigger line. The volume indicator (shown on the Daily chart) is turning down and has now moved below its trigger line. The trigger has also turned downwards. The 140 to 155 band seems to be a good support area and although the Index may move below its lower channel line it should not move too much lower. However, until a turn around is upon us and confirmed we are still in a BEARISH intermediate term rating zone.
On the short term the direction of the trend remains negative. The Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains well inside its negative zone inside a negative sloping channel. The momentum had just touched its oversold line so we might be getting a rest or rally of sorts in the days ahead. The daily volume action remains low as could be expected with a negative Index trend. The short term rating can only be classified as BEARISH.
The assessment of the immediate direction of least resistance is interesting. The Stochastic Oscillator had been in its oversold zone but has now bounced above its oversold line and is recovering. This is a precursor to the Index reversing and moving higher. The fact that the Index is basically on top of its support trend line also suggests that a rally may be just ahead. For the immediate direction of least resistance, I will go to the up side although it might take a few days to turn around and go higher.
I am starting to work on a new trading program for speculators who may wish to trade for the short term but do not want the hassle of day trading. The development is still in the early stages and much more needs to be done but the chart below shows where I’m at, at the present time. The large black arrow is the location where my Gold service went bullish on Seabridge. The smaller red arrows locate the short sell and buy back locations during the bear period while the smaller blue arrows show the buy and sell points during the bullish period. So far so good but like I said, still more work is required. One thing I have found is that the earlier in the new trend one gets in, the larger your % profit. The later in the trend the less your % profit. Stay tuned as this develops. If successful it may be a separate service for active traders.
for week ending 10 July 2009
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 10 July 2009
Open: 157.91
Hugh: 160.57
Low: 154.92
Close: 158.24
Volume: 3256
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
I’ve been away from serious blogging for about the past two weeks. During that time things have not been going too well. The Daily Index has been in a free fall while the Weekly Index has lost a lot of ground. So, where does that leave us today? I guess there is a combination of good news and bad news. The good news being that the bad news is so bad it can’t get much worse. Let’s get right to our routine.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday down just a little bit. It was down 0.89 points or 0.56%. There were 16 winners (always good to have winners) and 24 losers (not so good to have these) while 10 stocks had no idea what they wanted to do. All of our five largest stocks by market value were on the down side but nothing too critical. Cameco lost 0.1%, First Uranium lost 2.5%, Paladin lost 2.0%, Uranium One lost 1.1% and USEC lost 0.2%. The best winner of the day was Wescan Goldfields with a gain of 17.7% while the loser on the day was UEX Corp with a loss of 8.5%.
For the week as a whole, the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index was down 361.64 points or 7.15%. The winners/losers were a disaster area this past week. There were only 7 on the winner’s side while the losers numbered 40. Three stocks just stood still. We had one winner in the top 5 stocks. Cameco lost 7.1% on the week, First Uranium lost 15.4%, Paladin lost 11.3%, Uranium One was the one winner with a big gain of 0.4% and USEC lost 5.4%. The best weekly winner out of those 7 winners was Xemplar Energy with a weekly gain of 17.5% while Uranerz Energy was the loser of the week with a weekly loss of 28.5%.
Both the Weekly and the Daily Indices show a long term upward sloping channel with the Index basically sitting right on top of the lower support line. Both show their respective Indices to be just above their long term moving average lines and the lines are still in an upward slope. The momentum indicator of the Weekly Index has now moved into its negative zone while the Daily momentum indicator remains just below its neutral line and had not yet entered its positive zone. As for the volume indicator, it is showing signs of exhaustion but remains slightly above its positive trigger line. For the first time in a few months the long term indicator has been downgraded. The best rating I can give the long term is a + NEUTRAL rating. Things are moving towards a long term bear but it’s not quite there yet.
As for the intermediate term, the Daily Index remains below its negative moving average line with the momentum indicator in its negative zone below its negative trigger line. The volume indicator (shown on the Daily chart) is turning down and has now moved below its trigger line. The trigger has also turned downwards. The 140 to 155 band seems to be a good support area and although the Index may move below its lower channel line it should not move too much lower. However, until a turn around is upon us and confirmed we are still in a BEARISH intermediate term rating zone.
On the short term the direction of the trend remains negative. The Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains well inside its negative zone inside a negative sloping channel. The momentum had just touched its oversold line so we might be getting a rest or rally of sorts in the days ahead. The daily volume action remains low as could be expected with a negative Index trend. The short term rating can only be classified as BEARISH.
The assessment of the immediate direction of least resistance is interesting. The Stochastic Oscillator had been in its oversold zone but has now bounced above its oversold line and is recovering. This is a precursor to the Index reversing and moving higher. The fact that the Index is basically on top of its support trend line also suggests that a rally may be just ahead. For the immediate direction of least resistance, I will go to the up side although it might take a few days to turn around and go higher.
I am starting to work on a new trading program for speculators who may wish to trade for the short term but do not want the hassle of day trading. The development is still in the early stages and much more needs to be done but the chart below shows where I’m at, at the present time. The large black arrow is the location where my Gold service went bullish on Seabridge. The smaller red arrows locate the short sell and buy back locations during the bear period while the smaller blue arrows show the buy and sell points during the bullish period. So far so good but like I said, still more work is required. One thing I have found is that the earlier in the new trend one gets in, the larger your % profit. The later in the trend the less your % profit. Stay tuned as this develops. If successful it may be a separate service for active traders.
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