BASIC NOTES

Uranium Companies

There are very few pure uranium companies. Most companies, especially the small exploration type, are active in more than the uranium industry. This blog makes no attempt to guage the percentage of a companies activity that are related to the finding, mining or processing of uraniun. They all do, however, have some uranium activities (to the best of our review).

Merv's Uranium Indices

I have developed two Uranium Indices. They each have the same component stocks but are calculated using different methodologies. My weekly Index is based upon the average weekly performance of the component stocks. My daily Index is based upon the daily average of the component stocks open, high, low and close prices along with the daily average volume of all component stocks.

Click on the chart or table to enlage the view.



28 July 2009

Merv's Daily Commentary 28 July 2009


After The Close, 28 July 2009

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data

Open: 167.22
High: 172.57
Low: 162.41
Close: 167.29
Volume: 14062


Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 5 0 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Oh! What would we do without Government help? Oh yes, that’s what USEC can’t do without Government help, built nuclear plants or something. The stock took a plunge without any of that Stimulus money available. Lay-offs must be around the corner. But I thought that was what the Stimulus money was for, create jobs. AH, now I understand, it was to create Government jobs, and besides, Obama does not like nuclear. He is all for wind mills and the such.

USEC took the whole market down with it, well not the whole market but a goodly part of it. With the stock plunging prior to the normal market open the opening price just didn’t stand a chance. It was, however, encouraging that the Index closed just about the same price as where it opened and USEC closed the day a half point higher than its opening price, although still $2.00 down on the day. It’s days like this that make speculating interesting.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower by 6.30 points or 3.63%. There were 9 winners and 34 losers with 7 stocks just hanging around. Cameco lost 0.7%, First Uranium lost 1.1%, Paladin lost 2.5%, Uranium One lost 3.9% and USEC was way out there in no man’s land with a 34.6% decline. The best performer of the day, if you could call it that, was Quaterra with a gain of 5.0% while the loser of the day was --- guess --- USEC with that 34.6% loss (it was actually down some 48% earlier in the day so you might say it gained 13.4% during the afternoon).

I’m not sure if I would call that FAN as an intermediate or short term pattern. Here we see the FAN at work. The price is reacting just about where one would have expected that third FAN to be (see the week-end chart). It looks like the criteria that the price often stays inside two FAN trend lines is working. We can now look forward to the 152 or so as being a support both from previous activity and from the second FAN trend line.

The Index remains below its negative sloping intermediate term moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its positive zone, but only very slightly. It is moving lower fast and is now below its negative trigger line. The volume indicator continues in a basic lateral path although it has a bias towards the down side. It has closed the day below its now negative trigger line. The intermediate term rating must be downgraded again and the only rating left is a full BEARISH rating.

On the short term things are falling apart. The Index is now below its short term moving average line although the line is still pointing very slightly upwards. The momentum indicator has moved into its negative zone and has dropped below its negative trigger line. The daily volume shot up today due to some misfortune with USEC. Uranium One, our usually lately volume leader had a volume only one tenth of USEC today. This one stock volume move does cause problems trying to gauge the daily volume strength. I will leave it for a few days until USEC settles down. However, the short term rating today has been down graded to a full BEARISH rating. Let’s see how long that lasts.

I don’t think that this fiasco with USEC will have much of a lasting ripple effect throughout the rest of the component stocks. USEC is more of an industrial uranium stock and not an exploration or mining variety like the vast majority of the stocks. I would expect the USEC effect to last only a few short days, if that long.

1 comment:

David said...

Hi Merv, Usec Inc. was an investor over-reaction similar to Uranium One and First Uranium in previous months, regardless on Obama's environmental leanings.

With gold in downtrend for the next couple of weeks most uranium equities don't become a serious buy in the short-term. The Usec fiasco is covering up the current mining sub-sector weakness. If you use momentum charting indicators USU flashed sell May 6 at ~7.00/share. So conversely USU is likely going to flash buy soon.

David
http://www.yooreyneeuhm.com/