Merv's Daily Commentary 25 June 2009

After The Close, 25 June 2009

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data

Open: 166.34
High: 172.63
Low: 163.83
Close: 168.68
Volume: 4727


Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 5 0 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

We had a reasonable upside day but in the end nothing has yet significantly changed from the short or intermediate term. One indicator to watch is the daily volume action. For an up day the volume was pathetic and not encouraging at all. Of course it just might be speculators taking time off with the various holidays that are on-going at the present. I guess we’ll just have to watch and wait and see how things develop.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed higher by 5.81 points or 3.45%. There were 30 winners, 12 losers and 8 going nowhere. The largest stocks were somewhat mixed. Cameco gained 5.1%, First Uranium lost 0.2%, Paladin gained 4.4%, Uranium One was confused and went nowhere and USEC gained 8.0%. The best winner of the day was Strateco with a gain of 13.9% while the loser of the day was Crosshair Exploration with a loss of 7.0%.

Nothing much has changed from the intermediate term, although things are getting pretty close. The Daily Index closed just below its moving average line. Because of the way the moving average is calculated we have a real strange and rare occurrence today. Although the moving average had been sloping slightly lower yesterday and the Index closed below the line today, still the moving average curled up and turned into the up side today. Rarely would the average line turn upwards before the Index closed above the line. The momentum indicator remains in its positive zone and closed right on top of its still negative sloping trigger line. The volume indicator continues to move higher above its positive trigger line, although not that much above the line. The moving average turn up has caused the rating to change even though it is a rare turn-up. The intermediate term rating has been upgraded to a – NEUTRAL rating.

The short term has had a similar minor change but of not much concern. The Index closed below its negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone. The indicator did cross above its trigger line and today the trigger turned upwards. The daily volume action, as mentioned earlier, leaves a lot to be desired. I would like to see much more upside volume, holiday or no holiday. The up turning of the momentum indicator caused the rating to be slightly upgraded. The short term rating is now – NEUTRAL.

I guess I should jump on the band wagon and go with the up side as the direction of least resistance. However, I’ll just go another day with the lateral. One should watch the 180 level for an indication that this move may be more than a knee jerk bounce.

Boy, who said that celebrities’ deaths come in threes. We just had the third in only a few days. The moon walk will never be the same.