BASIC NOTES

Uranium Companies

There are very few pure uranium companies. Most companies, especially the small exploration type, are active in more than the uranium industry. This blog makes no attempt to guage the percentage of a companies activity that are related to the finding, mining or processing of uraniun. They all do, however, have some uranium activities (to the best of our review).

Merv's Uranium Indices

I have developed two Uranium Indices. They each have the same component stocks but are calculated using different methodologies. My weekly Index is based upon the average weekly performance of the component stocks. My daily Index is based upon the daily average of the component stocks open, high, low and close prices along with the daily average volume of all component stocks.

Click on the chart or table to enlage the view.



15 June 2009

Merv's Daily Commentary 15 June 2009


After The Close, 15 June 2009

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data

Open: 186.21
High: 188.97
Low: 177.07
Close: 181.42
Volume: 6530


Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 5 0 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Well, I guess I was asking for it but it came in the wrong direction. All is not yet lost but the action today was somewhat disconcerting. Maybe it was only “going with the flow”, with the rest of the market. The day’s effect was felt on the short term indicators but not yet on the intermediate term. However, even the intermediate term can’t stand many days like today.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed down on the day by 7.64 points or 4.04%. There were only 7 winners, 40 losers and 3 that were totally confused. One winner ruined a perfect down day for those five largest stocks. Cameco lost 4.9%, First Uranium lost 1.6%, Paladin lost 5.1%, Uranium One gained 3.9% and USEC lost 9.0%. The best winner was Rockgate Capital with a gain of 15.6% while the worst loser was East Asia Minerals with a loss of 12.9%. Maybe all is not lost if the best winner can still gain more than the worst loser can lose.

On the intermediate term the Daily Index is still above its positive moving average line but they are closing the gap fast. The momentum indicator remains in its positive zone but is moving lower and is below its negative trigger line. The momentum has also dropped below its short support level showing a little more weakness than is shown by the Index. The volume indicator is still way up there and above its positive trigger line. All in all the intermediate term rating remains BULLISH.

As for the short term, boy things change fast. The Index is now suddenly below its moving average line and the line slope has turned downward. The momentum indicator has dropped into its negative zone and is below its negative trigger line. I’m not yet sure how to read the daily volume action so let’s just say it is neutral. However, the short term rating has now reversed to the fully BEARISH side.

As for the immediate direction of least resistance, despite the negative Index move today, and the 40 losers, I will stick with the lateral direction as the trend of least resistance. Although the Index did drop 4% it closed very close to the middle of its daily trading range. That suggests that at the end of the day the move may have halted and maybe even advanced towards the close. We’ll see tomorrow.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Merv,

It did feel like the volume picked up after the down moves in alot of the U's today.

I read it as spec buyers entering and a possible bottom as we have experienced since January.

I guess we will have to wait and see what happens.