Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 15 May 2009
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 15 May 2009
Open: 177.12
Hugh: 180.74
Low: 171.94
Close: 174.99
Volume: 4723
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
The top continues to proceed along its merry path. During the formation of a top the up and down Index movements might seem small compared to what went on leading up to the top. However, there will come a time that the downward move may accelerate and quickly reach its lower goal from which we can then start thinking of a bottom process. These topping periods are quite normal in a bull market. We know that the Index or any stock does not continue to rise indefinitely but has to take a rest. During the rest we usually see lower prices briefly. The nimble trader can then pick up more stock at lower prices before the next move. The only thing one needs to watch out for is if the top ends up to be a reversal situation. But here, let the charts and indicators tell us what is what.
During a rest period within a bull market one can expect the short term to reverse direction. One might even see the intermediate term reverse direction for a brief period. What we would expect is that the long term would remain positive. But even here, depending to what extend the long term bull was in force it is also possible that the long term could turn negative. I’m inclined to go with the charts for my buy and sells. If a stock reverses then I would be inclined to get out. If that was a mistake then the charts will let me know pretty fast and I can get back in. If I did not get out when the chart reversed and the chart was right, I would not get a second chance to get my capital back at a reasonable price. Call the cost of a potential sell and then buy back as an insurance premium.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower on Friday by 1.36 points or 0.77%. There were 21 daily winners, 23 daily losers and 6 going nowhere. The top five stocks were basically on the down side. Cameco lost 0.8%, First Uranium didn’t have a clue which way to go, Paladin was the lone winner with a gain of 1.7%, Uranium One lost 1.7% and USEC lost 5.9%. The best daily mover was Purepoint Uranium with a gain of 17.1% while the worst daily mover was Rockgate Capital with a loss of 13.3%.
As for the week as a whole, the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed on the down side by 380.75 points or 6.81%. There were 9 weekly winners, 41 weekly losers and none that didn’t know which way they wanted to go. As for the five largest stocks, Cameco lost 2.9% on the week, First Uranium lost 11.0%, Paladin gained 0.7%, Uranium One lost 3.5% and USEC lost 19.4%. The best weekly mover was Crosshair Exploration with a weekly gain of 12.8% while the worst weekly mover was Rockgate Capital with a weekly loss of 21.2%.
As for the trends, well one week rarely changes much especially on the long term. The Weekly Index remains above its positive moving average line and the weekly momentum indicator remains in its positive zone. On the other hand the long term indicators in the Daily Index are slightly less positive. The Index is above its positive moving average line but the momentum indicator has not yet moved into its positive zone. It remains just below its neutral line and below its negative trigger line. The volume indicator remains positive and above its positive trigger line. On the long term I must still remain BULLISH.
On the intermediate term nothing has yet changed. The Daily Index remains well above its positive moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its positive zone. It is, however, trending lower and is below its negative trigger line. As for the volume indicator, although it is trending sideways it is still above its positive trigger line for a positive reading. Of course that short term moving average line remains above the intermediate term line for a positive confirmation. I still expect that the Index will get to the 160 level and there it should meet the intermediate term moving average line for a support. All in all, the intermediate term rating remains BULLISH.
On the short term things are not that positive. The Index is below its short term moving average line and the line slope is to the down side. The momentum indicator is still slightly in its positive zone but heading lower fast and is below its negative trigger line. The daily volume action is getting lower and this is expected during a reaction period. As confirmation of the short term trend the very short term moving average line has now crossed below the short term line. The short term is rated as BEARISH, again, to be expected during a rest or reaction period.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, one would expect that to be to the down side. The Stochastic Oscillator is just above its oversold line and heading lower fast. The very short term moving average line is also moving lower. However, looking at the price action of the past two days one gets the impression that the Index does not want to move lower, at least not yet. I will continue with the lateral as the direction of immediate least resistance.
Merv’s Gold & Silver 100 Index Table
In my precious metals service I publish several tables of gold and silver Indices stocks. I publish to my subscribers one table that includes my overall universe of 160 stocks. I have another table that includes the top 100 gold and silver stocks traded on the North American markets based upon market value. This table I do not usually publish as it is irrelevant since all the 100 stocks are included in my universe of 160.
Since I have just completed a latest revision to the tables I thought I’d make the 100 Table available to any and all who might wish to see it. The easiest place to post it would be on the blog, so sometimes during the week I will be posting a table of 100 gold and silver stocks. Do not panic, I am not changing the focus of this blog from uranium to gold. This is just a one shot deal.
for week ending 15 May 2009
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 15 May 2009
Open: 177.12
Hugh: 180.74
Low: 171.94
Close: 174.99
Volume: 4723
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
The top continues to proceed along its merry path. During the formation of a top the up and down Index movements might seem small compared to what went on leading up to the top. However, there will come a time that the downward move may accelerate and quickly reach its lower goal from which we can then start thinking of a bottom process. These topping periods are quite normal in a bull market. We know that the Index or any stock does not continue to rise indefinitely but has to take a rest. During the rest we usually see lower prices briefly. The nimble trader can then pick up more stock at lower prices before the next move. The only thing one needs to watch out for is if the top ends up to be a reversal situation. But here, let the charts and indicators tell us what is what.
During a rest period within a bull market one can expect the short term to reverse direction. One might even see the intermediate term reverse direction for a brief period. What we would expect is that the long term would remain positive. But even here, depending to what extend the long term bull was in force it is also possible that the long term could turn negative. I’m inclined to go with the charts for my buy and sells. If a stock reverses then I would be inclined to get out. If that was a mistake then the charts will let me know pretty fast and I can get back in. If I did not get out when the chart reversed and the chart was right, I would not get a second chance to get my capital back at a reasonable price. Call the cost of a potential sell and then buy back as an insurance premium.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower on Friday by 1.36 points or 0.77%. There were 21 daily winners, 23 daily losers and 6 going nowhere. The top five stocks were basically on the down side. Cameco lost 0.8%, First Uranium didn’t have a clue which way to go, Paladin was the lone winner with a gain of 1.7%, Uranium One lost 1.7% and USEC lost 5.9%. The best daily mover was Purepoint Uranium with a gain of 17.1% while the worst daily mover was Rockgate Capital with a loss of 13.3%.
As for the week as a whole, the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed on the down side by 380.75 points or 6.81%. There were 9 weekly winners, 41 weekly losers and none that didn’t know which way they wanted to go. As for the five largest stocks, Cameco lost 2.9% on the week, First Uranium lost 11.0%, Paladin gained 0.7%, Uranium One lost 3.5% and USEC lost 19.4%. The best weekly mover was Crosshair Exploration with a weekly gain of 12.8% while the worst weekly mover was Rockgate Capital with a weekly loss of 21.2%.
As for the trends, well one week rarely changes much especially on the long term. The Weekly Index remains above its positive moving average line and the weekly momentum indicator remains in its positive zone. On the other hand the long term indicators in the Daily Index are slightly less positive. The Index is above its positive moving average line but the momentum indicator has not yet moved into its positive zone. It remains just below its neutral line and below its negative trigger line. The volume indicator remains positive and above its positive trigger line. On the long term I must still remain BULLISH.
On the intermediate term nothing has yet changed. The Daily Index remains well above its positive moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its positive zone. It is, however, trending lower and is below its negative trigger line. As for the volume indicator, although it is trending sideways it is still above its positive trigger line for a positive reading. Of course that short term moving average line remains above the intermediate term line for a positive confirmation. I still expect that the Index will get to the 160 level and there it should meet the intermediate term moving average line for a support. All in all, the intermediate term rating remains BULLISH.
On the short term things are not that positive. The Index is below its short term moving average line and the line slope is to the down side. The momentum indicator is still slightly in its positive zone but heading lower fast and is below its negative trigger line. The daily volume action is getting lower and this is expected during a reaction period. As confirmation of the short term trend the very short term moving average line has now crossed below the short term line. The short term is rated as BEARISH, again, to be expected during a rest or reaction period.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, one would expect that to be to the down side. The Stochastic Oscillator is just above its oversold line and heading lower fast. The very short term moving average line is also moving lower. However, looking at the price action of the past two days one gets the impression that the Index does not want to move lower, at least not yet. I will continue with the lateral as the direction of immediate least resistance.
Merv’s Gold & Silver 100 Index Table
In my precious metals service I publish several tables of gold and silver Indices stocks. I publish to my subscribers one table that includes my overall universe of 160 stocks. I have another table that includes the top 100 gold and silver stocks traded on the North American markets based upon market value. This table I do not usually publish as it is irrelevant since all the 100 stocks are included in my universe of 160.
Since I have just completed a latest revision to the tables I thought I’d make the 100 Table available to any and all who might wish to see it. The easiest place to post it would be on the blog, so sometimes during the week I will be posting a table of 100 gold and silver stocks. Do not panic, I am not changing the focus of this blog from uranium to gold. This is just a one shot deal.
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